Importance of Horizontally Inhomogeneous Environmental Initial Conditions to Ensemble Storm-Scale Radar Data Assimilation and Very Short-Range Forecasts

Abstract The assimilation of operational Doppler radar observations into convection-resolving numerical weather prediction models for very short-range forecasting represents a significant scientific and technological challenge. Numerical experiments over the past few years indicate that convective-scale forecasts are sensitive to the details of the data assimilation methodology, the quality of the radar data, the parameterized microphysics, and the storm environment. In this study, the importance of horizontal environmental variability to very short-range (0–1 h) convective-scale ensemble forecasts initialized using Doppler radar observations is investigated for the 4–5 May 2007 Greensburg, Kansas, tornadic thunderstorm event. Radar observations of reflectivity and radial velocity from the operational Doppler radar network at 0230 UTC 5 May 2007, during the time of the first large tornado, are assimilated into each ensemble member using a three-dimensional variational data assimilation system (3DVAR) deve...

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