A time series model for Kt with application to global synthetic weather generation

Abstract This article describes a general mathematical procedure for generating synthetic daily solar irradiation values. The procedure should be useful for simulating solar energy systems, requiring only the 12 monthly means ( K t ), as input. The procedure is based on a time series analysis of the daily Kt values, described in the article. It incorporates the well-known probability distribution function for Kt, by using a transformed variable, rather than Kt, as the fundamental random quantity.

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