The Emerging Clusters Model: A tool for identifying emerging technologies across multiple patent systems

Emerging technologies are of great interest to a wide range of stakeholders, but identifying such technologies is often problematic, especially given the overwhelming amount of information available to analysts and researchers on many subjects. This paper describes the Emerging Clusters Model, which uses advanced patent citation techniques to locate emerging technologies in close to real time, rather than retrospectively. The model covers multiple patent systems, and is designed to be extensible to additional systems. This paper also describes the first large scale test of the Emerging Clusters Model. This test reveals that patents in emerging clusters consistently have a significantly higher impact on subsequent technological developments than patents outside these clusters. Given that these emerging clusters are defined as soon as a given time period ends, without the aid of any forward-looking information, this suggests that the Emerging Clusters Model may be a useful tool for identifying interesting new technologies as they emerge.

[1]  Peng Yu,et al.  A hybrid approach using two-level SOM and combined AHP rating and AHP/DEA-AR method for selecting optimal promising emerging technology , 2013, Expert Syst. Appl..

[2]  Anthony F. Breitzman,et al.  The many applications of patent analysis , 2002, J. Inf. Sci..

[3]  F. Narin,et al.  Patents as indicators of corporate technological strength , 1987 .

[4]  Claire François,et al.  An advanced diffusion model to identify emergent research issues: the case of optoelectronic devices , 2010, Scientometrics.

[5]  Fernando Jiménez-Sáez,et al.  Mapping the importance of the real world: The validity of connectivity analysis of patent citations networks , 2011 .

[6]  Francis Narin,et al.  Citation rates to technologically important patents , 1981 .

[7]  Anthony Breitzman,et al.  The Emerging Clusters Project Final Report , 2007 .

[8]  Clayton M. Christensen,et al.  CUSTOMER POWER, STRATEGIC INVESTMENT, AND THE FAILURE OF LEADING FIRMS , 1996 .

[9]  J. Schumpeter.  Theorie der wirtschaftlichen Entwicklung , 1913 .

[10]  Henry G. Small,et al.  Co-citation in the scientific literature: A new measure of the relationship between two documents , 1973, J. Am. Soc. Inf. Sci..

[11]  Chihmao Hsieh,et al.  Explicitly searching for useful inventions: dynamic relatedness and the costs of connecting versus synthesizing , 2010, Scientometrics.

[12]  D. Harhoff,et al.  Citation Frequency and the Value of Patented Inventions , 1999, Review of Economics and Statistics.

[13]  M. Trajtenberg.  A Penny for Your Quotes : Patent Citations and the Value of Innovations , 1990 .

[14]  G. S. Alʹtshuller,et al.  The Innovation Algorithm:TRIZ, systematic innovation and technical creativity , 1999 .

[15]  F. Narin,et al.  Direct validation of citation counts as indicators of industrially important patents , 1991 .

[16]  D. Altman,et al.  The odds ratio , 2000, BMJ : British Medical Journal.

[17]  Anthony F. Breitzman,et al.  A method for identifying hot patents and linking them to government-funded scientific research , 2006 .

[18]  Alan L. Porter,et al.  Forecasting Innovation Pathways (FIP) for new and emerging science and technologies , 2013 .

[19]  Péter Érdi,et al.  Prediction of emerging technologies based on analysis of the US patent citation network , 2012, Scientometrics.

[20]  Bhaven N. Sampat,et al.  Patent Citations and the Economic Value of Patents , 2004 .

[21]  F. Narin,et al.  Science and Technology as Predictors of Stock Performance , 1999 .

[22]  Knut Blind,et al.  The influence of strategic patenting on companies' patent portfolios , 2009 .

[23]  Kimberly S. Hamilton,et al.  The increasing linkage between U.S. technology and public science , 1997 .

[24]  Larry Kahaner.  Competitive intelligence : from black ops to boardrooms--how businesses gather, analyze, and use information to succeed in the global marketplace , 1996 .

[25]  Jinhyung Kim,et al.  Technology trends analysis and forecasting application based on decision tree and statistical feature analysis , 2012, Expert Syst. Appl..

[26]  Manuel Trajtenberg,et al.  Market Value and Patent Citations: A First Look , 2000 .

[27]  Shyh-Jen Wang,et al.  Factors to evaluate a patent in addition to citations , 2007, Scientometrics.

[28]  Robert Phaal,et al.  Technology roadmapping—A planning framework for evolution and revolution , 2004 .

[29]  F. Bass.  A new product growth model for consumer durables , 1976 .

[30]  Anthony Breitzman,et al.  Using patents prospectively to identify emerging, high-impact technological clusters , 2009 .

[31]  Michael A. Carrier.  A Roadmap to the Smartphone Patent Wars and FRAND Licensing , 2012 .

[32]  Tugrul U. Daim,et al.  Forecasting emerging technologies: Use of bibliometrics and patent analysis , 2006 .

[33]  Rosalie Ruegg,et al.  Tracing government-funded research in wind energy to commercial renewable power generation , 2009 .

[34]  G. Duysters,et al.  The technological origins of radical inventions , 2010 .

[35]  Jun S. Liu,et al.  Monte Carlo strategies in scientific computing , 2001 .

[36]  Murray Turoff,et al.  The Delphi Method: Techniques and Applications , 1976 .

[37]  Claire François,et al.  Identification and characterisation of technological topics in the field of Molecular Biology , 2010, Scientometrics.