Logit Models from Economics and Other Fields: The origins and development of the logit model

This is and updated and somewhat extended version of Chapter 9 of Logit Models from Economics and Other Fields (Cambridge University Press, 2003) which includes additional material obtained since the completion of that book. The text has been adapted so that this paper can be read independently. The paper describes the origins of the logistic function and its history up to the adoption of the logit in bio-assay and the beginning of its wider acceptance in statistics. Its roots spread back to the 19th century, when the function was invented to describe population growth and given its name by the Belgian mathematician Verhulst. Subsequent events have been determined decisively by the individual actions and personal histories of a few scholars: the rediscovery of the growth function is due to Pearl and Reed, the survival of the term logistic to Yule, and the introduction of the function in bio-assay (and hence in statistics in general) to Berkson. ∗University of Amsterdam and Tinbergen Institute, Amsterdam; postal address Baambrugse Zuwe 194, 3645 AM Vinkeveen, the Netherlands; e-mail mars.cram@worldonline.nl. For comments on earlier drafts and ready help in obtaining valuable information about Verhulst, Pearl and Du Pasquier I thank John Glaus (Maine), Jan Sandee (Boskoop), Ida Stamhuis (Amsterdam), Professor G. Vanpaemel (Gent) and Professor J.Aghion (Liège). I am much indebted to the American Philosophical Society, Philadelphia, for permission to consult the Pearl Archives, which contain the correspondence and pocket diaries of Raymond Pearl, and to Robert Cox for his help; to Professor Remy Scheurer (Neuchâtel), who provided invaluable material about Du Pasquier from the archives of the University of Neuchâtel; and to Michel Guillot (Paris) and Anton Barten (Leuven) who kindly assisted me in consulting Du Pasquier’s books at the Bibliothèque Nationale and the University Library, Leuven.

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