Risk Assessment in Extreme Events Considering the Reliability of Protection Systems

This paper presents a new risk assessment method that is applicable to extreme cases in power systems. This paper analyzes the interactions among protection system components and the power grid in extreme events pertaining to simultaneous faults and cascading failures. The hidden failures of protection systems could exacerbate power system conditions if cascading events tend to follow a path to a blackout. The proposed risk assessment considers detailed reliability models of protection system components including circuit breakers (CBs) and protective relays. The failure probability of a CB is formulated considering its component degradation rate and operation times. The failure model of a protective relay is constructed using the dynamic fault tree. The evolution of cascading failures of power systems in extreme conditions, which deteriorates due to protection system malfunctions, is modeled based on the actual physical system behavior. The effectiveness of the proposed risk assessment method is demonstrated using a modified 9-bus system and the IEEE 68-bus system.

[1]  Duncan J. Watts,et al.  Collective dynamics of ‘small-world’ networks , 1998, Nature.

[2]  Albert,et al.  Emergence of scaling in random networks , 1999, Science.

[3]  Marvin K. Nakayama,et al.  A Markovian Dependability Model with Cascading Failures , 2009, IEEE Transactions on Computers.

[4]  Brian Lithgow,et al.  New Fault Diagnosis of Circuit Breakers , 2002, IEEE Power Engineering Review.

[5]  Mohammad Shahidehpour,et al.  Only Connect: Microgrids for Distribution System Restoration , 2014, IEEE Power and Energy Magazine.

[6]  Deepa Kundur,et al.  A Coordinated Multi-Switch Attack for Cascading Failures in Smart Grid , 2014, IEEE Transactions on Smart Grid.

[7]  Roy Billinton,et al.  Effect of protection systems on bulk power reliability evaluation , 1994 .

[8]  L. Pereira,et al.  Cascade to black [system blackouts] , 2004, IEEE Power and Energy Magazine.

[9]  Bikash C. Pal,et al.  Report on the 68-bus, 16-machine, 5-area system , 2013 .

[10]  Lamine Mili,et al.  Catastrophic Failures in Power Systems: Causes, Analyses, and Countermeasures , 2005, Proceedings of the IEEE.

[11]  Réka Albert,et al.  Structural vulnerability of the North American power grid. , 2004, Physical review. E, Statistical, nonlinear, and soft matter physics.

[12]  Yaping Wang,et al.  A Multi-Objective Optimization of Imperfect Preventive Maintenance Policy for Dependent Competing Risk Systems With Hidden Failure , 2011, IEEE Transactions on Reliability.

[13]  Quan Chen,et al.  Composite Power System Vulnerability Evaluation to Cascading Failures Using Importance Sampling and Antithetic Variates , 2013, IEEE Transactions on Power Systems.

[14]  Jovica V. Milanovic,et al.  Probabilistic Indicators for Assessing Age- and Loading-Based Criticality of Transformers to Cascading Failure Events , 2014, IEEE Transactions on Power Systems.

[15]  Gerard Ledwich,et al.  An Analytic Model for Fault Diagnosis in Power Systems Considering Malfunctions of Protective Relays and Circuit Breakers , 2010, IEEE Transactions on Power Delivery.

[16]  Gang Wang,et al.  An Improved OPA Model and Blackout Risk Assessment , 2009, IEEE Transactions on Power Systems.

[17]  Anna Scaglione,et al.  Generating Statistically Correct Random Topologies for Testing Smart Grid Communication and Control Networks , 2010, IEEE Transactions on Smart Grid.

[18]  Mohammad Shahidehpour,et al.  Adaptive Protection System for Microgrids: Protection practices of a functional microgrid system. , 2014, IEEE Electrification Magazine.

[19]  Yuri V. Makarov,et al.  Blackout Prevention in the United States, Europe, and Russia , 2005, Proceedings of the IEEE.

[20]  Xin Shan,et al.  An on-line identification of equipment risk for 3/2 circuit breaker connections , 2011, 2011 International Conference on Advanced Power System Automation and Protection.

[21]  Zengping Wang,et al.  Protection Dynamic Reliability Analysis System Based on 3RF Technique , 2011, IEEE Transactions on Power Systems.

[22]  Ia An N Do.  A LOADING-DEPENDENT MODEL OF PROBABILISTIC CASCADING FAILURE , 2005 .

[23]  Anton Janssen,et al.  International Surveys on Circuit-Breaker Reliability Data for Substation and System Studies , 2014, IEEE Transactions on Power Delivery.

[24]  I. Kamwa,et al.  Causes of the 2003 major grid blackouts in North America and Europe, and recommended means to improve system dynamic performance , 2005, IEEE Transactions on Power Systems.