System dynamic simulation: A new method in social impact assessment (SIA)

Many complex social questions are difficult to address adequately with conventional methods and techniques, due to the complicated dynamics, and hard to quantify social processes. Despite these difficulties researchers and practitioners have attempted to use conventional methods not only in evaluative modes but also in predictive modes to inform decision making. The effectiveness of SIAs would be increased if they were used to support the project design processes. This requires deliberate use of lessons from retrospective assessments to inform predictive assessments. Social simulations may be a useful tool for developing a predictive SIA method. There have been limited attempts to develop computer simulations that allow social impacts to be explored and understood before implementing development projects. In light of this argument, this paper aims to introduce System Dynamic (SD) simulation as a new predictive SIA method in large development projects. We propose the potential value of the SD approach to simulate social impacts of development projects. We use data from the SIA of Gareh-Bygone floodwater spreading project to illustrate the potential of SD simulation in SIA. It was concluded that in comparison to traditional SIA methods SD simulation can integrate quantitative and qualitative inputs from different sources and methods and provides a more effective and dynamic assessment of social impacts for development projects. We recommend future research to investigate the full potential of SD in SIA in comparing different situations and scenarios.

[1]  Claudio Cioffi-Revilla,et al.  On the Quality of a Social Simulation Model: A Lifecycle Framework , 2013, ESSA.

[2]  Yunwei Liu,et al.  Application of SD model in Analyzing the Cultivated Land Carrying Capacity: A Case Study in Bijie Prefecture, Guizho Province, China , 2011 .

[3]  Kyle Chard,et al.  eScience in the Social Cloud , 2013, Future Gener. Comput. Syst..

[4]  R. Sun.  Cognition and Multi-Agent Interactions: From Cognitive Modeling to Social Simulation , 2005 .

[5]  Shuifen Zhan,et al.  Dynamic modelling for ecological and economic sustainability in a rapid urbanizing region , 2012 .

[6]  Zhang Xiaojian,et al.  Evaluation of Wetland Ecological Restoration Project Based on SD: A Case Study on Qilihai Wetland in Tianjin , 2011 .

[7]  Frank Vanclay,et al.  Social impact assessment: the state of the art , 2012 .

[8]  Frank Vanclay,et al.  Conceptualising social impacts , 2002 .

[9]  Thomas R. Gruber,et al.  Toward principles for the design of ontologies used for knowledge sharing? , 1995, Int. J. Hum. Comput. Stud..

[10]  Pedro P. B. de Oliveira,et al.  Dynamics of Quality Perception in a Social Network: A Cellular Automaton Based Model in Aesthetics Services , 2009, Electron. Notes Theor. Comput. Sci..

[11]  T. Bossomaier,et al.  Using Agent-Based Models to Design Social Marketing Campaign , 2014 .

[12]  Andreas Tolk,et al.  Ontology, Epistemology, and Teleology for Modeling and Simulation - Philosophical Foundations for Intelligent M&S Applications , 2012, Ontology, Epistemology, and Teleology for Modeling and Simulation.

[13]  John Rolfe,et al.  Coal mining and the resource community cycle: A longitudinal assessment of the social impacts of the Coppabella coal mine , 2009 .

[14]  Paul Windrum,et al.  Empirical Validation of Agent-Based Models: Alternatives and Prospects , 2007, J. Artif. Soc. Soc. Simul..

[15]  Mehdi Saqalli,et al.  Testing the impact of social forces on the evolution of Sahelian farming systems: A combined agent-based modeling and anthropological approach , 2010 .

[16]  David Parsons,et al.  Development and Evaluation of an Integrated Simulation Model for Assessing Smallholder Crop-Livestock Production in Yucatán, Mexico , 2011 .

[17]  Ta Theo Arentze,et al.  Social influences on household location, mobility and activity choice in integrated micro-simulation models , 2011 .

[18]  F. Vanclay,et al.  How social impact assessment can contribute to conflict management , 2014 .

[19]  Slobodan P. Simonovic,et al.  SYSTEM DYNAMICS MODELING OF RESERVOIR OPERATIONS FOR FLOOD MANAGEMENT , 2000 .

[20]  Chris Barrow,et al.  Social impact assessment : an introduction , 2000 .

[21]  Frank Vanclay,et al.  Social Development Needs Analysis as a tool for SIA to guide corporate-community investment: Applications in the minerals industry , 2009 .

[22]  Cai Lin,et al.  System Dynamics Application to the Population Growth and Garbage Disposal in Beijing , 2006 .

[23]  Li An,et al.  Agent-based modeling of the effects of social norms on enrollment in payments for ecosystem services. , 2012, Ecological modelling.

[24]  Ying Wang,et al.  Research on Demand-driven Leagile Supply Chain Operation Model: A Simulation Based on AnyLogic in System Engineering , 2012 .

[25]  Francesco C. Billari,et al.  Introduction: Agent-Based Computational Demography , 2003 .

[26]  John H. Miller,et al.  The standing ovation problem , 2004, Complex..

[27]  Anton Kühberger,et al.  Is social projection based on simulation or theory? Why new methods are needed for differentiating , 2012, New ideas in psychology.

[28]  Rauno Sairinen,et al.  Assessing social impacts in urban waterfront regeneration , 2006 .

[29]  Susan Jacobs,et al.  Institutionalizing social analysis at the world bank , 1999 .

[30]  Frank Vanclay,et al.  International Principles For Social Impact Assessment , 2003 .

[31]  Li Zhang,et al.  An Agent-based Model of Social Norm and Cooperationp , 2013, ITQM.

[32]  Uwe Aickelin,et al.  Comparing System Dynamics and Agent-Based Simulation for Tumour Growth and its Interactions with Effector Cells , 2011, SCSC 2011.

[33]  Charles C. Harris,et al.  A participatory approach to social impact assessment: The interactive community forum , 2003 .

[34]  Jacqueline Schirmer,et al.  Scaling up: Assessing social impacts at the macro-scale , 2011 .

[35]  C. Barrow,et al.  How is environmental conflict addressed by SIA , 2010 .

[36]  G. Nigel Gilbert,et al.  The Epistemologies of Social Simulation Research , 2009, EPOS.

[37]  A. Marcela Printista,et al.  Evacuation Simulation Supporting High Level Behaviour-Based Agents , 2013, ICCS.

[38]  Millán Arroyo,et al.  Agent-based modelling and simulation for the analysis of social patterns , 2008, Pattern Recognit. Lett..

[39]  Slobodan P Simonovic,et al.  World water dynamics: global modeling of water resources. , 2002, Journal of environmental management.

[40]  Ezatollah Karami,et al.  A social impact assessment of the floodwater spreading project on the Gareh-Bygone plain in Iran: A causal comparative approach , 2009 .

[41]  James J. Winebrake,et al.  Dynamic Modeling of Environmental Systems , 1999, Modeling Dynamic Systems.

[42]  J Swanson,et al.  Business Dynamics—Systems Thinking and Modeling for a Complex World , 2002, J. Oper. Res. Soc..

[43]  Ezatollah Karami,et al.  Modeling the determinants of the social impacts of agricultural development projects , 2011 .

[44]  Stanislav E. Shmelev,et al.  Ecological–economic modelling for strategic regional waste management systems , 2006 .

[45]  R G Coyle,et al.  System Dynamics Modelling: A Practical Approach , 1996 .

[46]  Robert Axelrod.  Advancing the art of simulation in the social sciences , 1997 .

[47]  L. A. Sandham,et al.  Assessing the performance of SIA in the EIA context: A case study of South Africa , 2006 .

[48]  Catholijn M. Jonker,et al.  On the engineering of agent-based simulations of social activities with social networks , 2012, Inf. Softw. Technol..

[49]  François Bousquet,et al.  A Methodology for Eliciting and Modelling Stakeholders' Representations with Agent Based Modelling , 2003, MABS.

[50]  Neil Collier,et al.  Scenario modelling to support industry strategic planning and decision making , 2014, Environ. Model. Softw..

[51]  John R. Parkins,et al.  Comparative Case Study as Social Impact Assessment: Possibilities and Limitations for Anticipating Social Change in the Far North , 2009 .

[52]  Hisham El-Shishiny,et al.  A Fuzzy Logic based Trend Impact Analysis method , 2010 .

[53]  Davy Janssens,et al.  Multi-agent simulation of individual mobility behavior in carpooling , 2014 .

[54]  Charles M. Macal,et al.  To agent-based simulation from System Dynamics , 2010, Proceedings of the 2010 Winter Simulation Conference.

[55]  Frank Vanclay,et al.  Function evaluation as a framework for the integration of social and environmental impact assessment , 2001 .

[56]  Joseph R. Kasprzyk,et al.  Many objective robust decision making for complex environmental systems undergoing change , 2012, Environ. Model. Softw..

[57]  Julia Martínez-Fernández,et al.  Trade-offs between maintenance of ecosystem services and socio-economic development in rural mountainous communities in southern Spain: a dynamic simulation approach. , 2013, Journal of environmental management.

[58]  David Parsons,et al.  “Modeling the impact of natural resource-based poverty traps on food security in Kenya: The Crops, Livestock and Soils in Smallholder Economic Systems (CLASSES) model” , 2012, Food Security.

[59]  Harry M. Kaiser,et al.  Predicting nutritional requirements and lactation performance of dual-purpose cows using a dynamic model , 2004 .

[60]  Kim Leng Poh,et al.  Using System Dynamics for Sustainable Water Resources Management in Singapore , 2013, CSER.

[61]  Ortwin Renn,et al.  Potential methods and approaches to assess social impacts associated with food safety issues , 2010 .

[62]  Hitoshi Iba.  Agent-Based Modeling and Simulation with Swarm , 2013 .

[63]  Frank Vanclay,et al.  EVALUATING THE USE OF SOCIAL IMPACT ASSESSMENT IN THE CONTEXT OF AGRICULTURAL DEVELOPMENT PROJECTS IN IRAN , 2009 .

[64]  Hong Yang,et al.  System dynamics simulation model for assessing socio-economic impacts of different levels of environmental flow allocation in the Weihe River Basin, China , 2012, Eur. J. Oper. Res..

[65]  Frank Vanclay,et al.  A framework for combining social impact assessment and risk assessment , 2013 .

[66]  Rauno Sairinen,et al.  Environmental conflict mediation and social impact assessment: Approaches for enhanced environmental governance? , 2010 .

[67]  Kazuo Miyashita.  ASAP: Agent-Based Simulator for Amusement Park , 2004, MABS.

[68]  Ian A. Apperly,et al.  Beyond Simulation–Theory and Theory–Theory: Why social cognitive neuroscience should use its own concepts to study “theory of mind” , 2008, Cognition.

[69]  Guangyin Zhang,et al.  Simulation modeling for wetland utilization and protection based on system dynamic model in a coastal city, China , 2012 .

[70]  Robert W. Blake,et al.  Group Model Building to Assess Rural Dairy Cooperative Feasibility in South-Central Mexico , 2013 .

[71]  Elmer Ccopa Rivera,et al.  Systems models to evaluate eutrophication in the Broa Reservoir, São Carlos, Brazil , 2007 .

[72]  M S Reed,et al.  Participatory scenario development for environmental management: a methodological framework illustrated with experience from the UK uplands. , 2013, Journal of environmental management.

[73]  Tatiana Ermolieva.  Simulation-based optimization of social security systems under uncertainty , 2005, Eur. J. Oper. Res..

[74]  P. Boskma,et al.  SOCIAL IMPACT ASSESSMENT BY SOCIAL SIMULATION , 1986 .

[75]  George A. Vouros,et al.  Exploring Factors and Policies for Poverty by Agent-based Simulation , 2013, CSER.

[76]  Damianos P. Sakas,et al.  Simulation Model for Motivating the Creation of Entrepreneurship Actions , 2013 .

[77]  Eliot H. Rich,et al.  Using System Dynamics modelling approach to develop management tools for animal production with emphasis on small ruminants , 2011 .

[78]  F. Vanclay.  Principles for social impact assessment: A critical comparison between the international and US documents , 2006 .

[79]  Alois Ferscha,et al.  Potential of Social Modelling in Socio-Technical Systems , 2011, FET.

[80]  Valerie Spicer,et al.  A cellular automata model on residential migration in response to neighborhood social dynamics , 2010, Math. Comput. Model..

[81]  Charles C. Harris,et al.  Social impact A comparison of a technical and a participatory application of social impact assessment , 2004 .

[82]  John D. Sterman,et al.  System Dynamics: Systems Thinking and Modeling for a Complex World , 2002 .

[83]  Hiroshi Ishidaira,et al.  Sustainability Analysis for Yellow River Water Resources Using the System Dynamics Approach , 2002 .

[84]  Luis Antunes,et al.  Mentat: A Data-Driven Agent-Based Simulation of Social Values Evolution , 2009, MABS.

[85]  R. Dunlap,et al.  Measuring Endorsement of the New Ecological Paradigm: A Revised NEP Scale , 2000 .

[86]  Bo-sin Tang,et al.  Social impact assessment and public participation in China: A case study of land requisition in Guangzhou , 2008 .

[87]  Henk A. Becker,et al.  SOCIAL IMPACT ASSESSMENT , 1986 .

[88]  Danny Weyns,et al.  Extending Time Management Support for Multi-agent Systems , 2004, MABS.