The importance of modelled processes in the evolution of snow cover versus snow mass

The first study is an evaluation of simulated snow cover extent projections from models participating in the 6th phase of the World Climate Research Programme Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP-6). We demonstrate a single linear relationship between projected spring snow extent and global surface air temperature (GSAT) changes, which is valid across all future climate scenarios. This finding suggests that Northern Hemisphere spring snow extent will decrease by about 8% relative to the 1995-2014 level per °C of GSAT increase. The sensitivity of snow to temperature forcing largely explains the absence of any climate change pathway dependency, similar to other fast response components of the cryosphere such as sea ice and near surface permafrost.