A note on community-detection (Kemeny) based testing for COVID-19

The Kemeny constant of a graph can be used to identify and analyse bridges between communities in a graph. Testing, tracking and tracing abilities have been identified as pivotal in helping countries to safely reopen activities after the first wave of the COVID-19 virus. Tracing techniques aim at reconstructing past history of contacts, but can face practical limits in an exponential growth of either testing or overly conservative quarantining. We show how this application of graph theory can be conveniently used to efficiently intercept new virus outbreaks, when they are still in their early stage. Simulations provide promising results in early identification and blocking of possible "super-spreader links that transmit disease between different communities.

[1]  L. Freeman Centrality in social networks conceptual clarification , 1978 .

[2]  P. Cochat,et al.  Et al , 2008, Archives de pediatrie : organe officiel de la Societe francaise de pediatrie.

[3]  Lucie Abeler-Dörner,et al.  Quantifying SARS-CoV-2 transmission suggests epidemic control with digital contact tracing , 2020, Science.

[4]  Alex Pothen,et al.  Graph Partitioning Algorithms with Applications to Scientific Computing , 1997 .

[5]  M. Salathé,et al.  COVID-19 epidemic in Switzerland: on the importance of testing, contact tracing and isolation. , 2020, Swiss medical weekly.

[6]  Yongsheng Wu,et al.  Epidemiology and transmission of COVID-19 in 391 cases and 1286 of their close contacts in Shenzhen, China: a retrospective cohort study , 2020, The Lancet Infectious Diseases.

[7]  Vince Grolmusz,et al.  A note on the PageRank of undirected graphs , 2012, Inf. Process. Lett..

[8]  B. Nordstrom FINITE MARKOV CHAINS , 2005 .

[9]  Reza Fathi,et al.  Efficient Distributed Community Detection in the Stochastic Block Model , 2019, 2019 IEEE 39th International Conference on Distributed Computing Systems (ICDCS).

[10]  Mark Levene,et al.  Kemeny's Constant and the Random Surfer , 2002, Am. Math. Mon..

[11]  Reza Yaesoubi,et al.  Generalized Markov models of infectious disease spread: A novel framework for developing dynamic health policies , 2011, Eur. J. Oper. Res..

[12]  Kari Stefansson,et al.  Spread of SARS-CoV-2 in the Icelandic Population , 2020, The New England journal of medicine.

[13]  Mason A. Porter,et al.  Communities in Networks , 2009, ArXiv.

[14]  Santo Fortunato,et al.  Community detection in graphs , 2009, ArXiv.

[15]  F. Radicchi,et al.  Benchmark graphs for testing community detection algorithms. , 2008, Physical review. E, Statistical, nonlinear, and soft matter physics.

[16]  Ryan A. Rossi,et al.  The Network Data Repository with Interactive Graph Analytics and Visualization , 2015, AAAI.

[17]  Quentin J. Leclerc,et al.  Quantifying the impact of physical distance measures on the transmission of COVID-19 in the UK , 2020, BMC Medicine.

[18]  Robert Shorten,et al.  A Google-like model of road network dynamics and its application to regulation and control , 2011, Int. J. Control.

[19]  M E J Newman,et al.  Modularity and community structure in networks. , 2006, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America.

[20]  M E J Newman,et al.  Community structure in social and biological networks , 2001, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America.

[21]  Hannah Fry,et al.  Effectiveness of isolation, testing, contact tracing, and physical distancing on reducing transmission of SARS-CoV-2 in different settings: a mathematical modelling study , 2020, The Lancet Infectious Diseases.

[22]  Peter G. Doyle,et al.  The Kemeny constant of a Markov chain , 2009, 0909.2636.

[23]  E. Lavezzo,et al.  Suppression of COVID-19 outbreak in the municipality of Vo, Italy , 2020, medRxiv.

[24]  Mark E. J. Newman A measure of betweenness centrality based on random walks , 2005, Soc. Networks.

[25]  Reuven Cohen,et al.  Efficient immunization strategies for computer networks and populations. , 2002, Physical review letters.

[26]  Leonard M. Freeman,et al.  A set of measures of centrality based upon betweenness , 1977 .

[27]  M. Keeling,et al.  Networks and epidemic models , 2005, Journal of The Royal Society Interface.

[28]  Amy Nicole Langville,et al.  Google's PageRank and beyond - the science of search engine rankings , 2006 .

[29]  Ulrike von Luxburg,et al.  A tutorial on spectral clustering , 2007, Stat. Comput..

[30]  P. Klepac,et al.  Feasibility of controlling COVID-19 outbreaks by isolation of cases and contacts , 2020, The Lancet Global Health.

[31]  C. D. Meyer,et al.  Comparison of perturbation bounds for the stationary distribution of a Markov chain , 2001 .

[32]  J. MacQueen Some methods for classification and analysis of multivariate observations , 1967 .

[33]  Jane Breen,et al.  COMPUTING KEMENY’S CONSTANT FOR BARBELL-TYPE GRAPHS∗ , 2019 .