论文信息 - Prediction of Silkworm Cocoon Yield in China Based on Grey-Markov Forecasting Model

Prediction of Silkworm Cocoon Yield in China Based on Grey-Markov Forecasting Model

The method of Grey prediction and Markov Chain prediction could be used for the prediction in time order. Their combination could be extensively applied in forecasting. In this paper, we studied the precisions of Grey-Markov forecasting model based on the original data of the silkworm cocoon yield in China from 1950 to 1999. The precisions of Grey-Markov forecasting model from 2000 to 2003 are 95.56%, 95.17% and 94.40% respectively, which are higher than GM (1,1), and next to the Exponential Smoothing method and linear regression. The paper provided a scientific basis for the planned development of sericulture in China.

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