Evaluating the impact of uncertain parameters in power system dynamic simulations

There are typically uncertain parameters in power system models. This paper presents a computational method for evaluating the effect of parameter uncertainty on the dynamic behaviors of power systems. The effect of parameter uncertainty is represented by system trajectory or performance bounds around nominal values. Based on the notion of optimal power flow with transient stability constraints, a set of nonlinear optimization problems is formulated to determine the upper and lower bounds of system trajectories. A successive linear programming approach is suggested to solve these nonlinear optimization problems. The proposed method is evaluated by several test systems. The results show that the proposed method is valid and potentially useful in quantifying the effect of parameter uncertainty in power system dynamic simulations.