Going Further with Cases: Using Case-Based Reasoning to Recommend Pacing Strategies for Ultra-Marathon Runners

We build on recent work on the application of case-based reasoning to help marathon runners to plan and pace their races. We apply related ideas to the domain of ultra running (typically >100 km routes across mountainous or desert terrain). This new domain introduces its own distinct challenges: distance and terrain make for a more physically demanding and less predictable event; weather can play a very significant role in how competitors perform; and, unlike road marathons, race routes and distances vary from year to year, making it more difficult to compare race records. We evaluate case-based methods for pace prediction and pacing recommendation for runners in the Ultra Trail du Mont Blanc (UTMB), one of the world’s toughest ultra-marathons.

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