Monitoring Banking Sector Fragility: A Multivariate Logit Approach with an Application to the 1996-97 Banking Crises

This article explores how a multivariate logit model of the probability of a banking crisis can be used to monitor banking sector fragility. The proposed approach relies on readily available data, and the fragility assessment has a clear interpretation based on in sample statistics. The model has better in-sample performance than currently available alternatives, and the monitoring system can be tailored to fit the preferences of decision makers regarding type I and type II errors. The framework can be useful as a preliminary screen to economize on precautionary costs.

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