Does Firm Value Move Too Much to Be Justified By Subsequent Changes in Cash Flow?

The appropriate measure of cash flow for valuing corporate assets is net payout, which is the sum of dividends, interest, and net repurchases of equity and debt. Variation in net payout yield, the ratio of net payout to asset value, is mostly driven by movements in expected cash flow growth, instead of movements in discount rates. Net payout yield is less persistent than dividend yield and implies much smaller variation in long-horizon discount rates. Therefore, movements in the value of corporate assets can be justified by changes in expected future cash flow.

[1]  R. Hodrick Dividend Yields and Expected Stock Returns: Alternative Procedures for Interference and Measurement , 1991 .

[2]  Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh,et al.  The Returns on Human Capital: Good News on Wall Street is Bad News on Main Street , 2005 .

[3]  W. B. Hickman Trends and Cycles in Corporate Bond Financing , 1952 .

[4]  W. Andrew,et al.  LO, and A. , 1988 .

[5]  Jeffrey Wurgler,et al.  The Equity Share in New Issues and Aggregate Stock Returns , 1999 .

[6]  R. Hall The Stock Market and Capital Accumulation , 1999 .

[7]  Amy K. Dittmar,et al.  Stock Repurchase Waves: An Explanation of the Trends in Aggregate Corporate Payout Policy , 2002 .

[8]  Merton H. Miller The Cost of Capital, Corporation Finance and the Theory of Investment , 1958 .

[9]  D. Share Grullon, Gustavo, and Roni Michaely. , 2002 .

[10]  Jeffrey Wurgler,et al.  Market Timing and Capital Structure , 2001 .

[11]  Andrew Ang,et al.  Stock Return Predictability: Is it There? , 2001 .

[12]  Erik Stafford,et al.  New Evidence and Perspectives on Mergers , 2001 .

[13]  E. Fama,et al.  Disappearing Dividends: Changing Firm Characteristics or Lower Propensity to Pay? , 2000 .

[14]  Roni Michaely,et al.  Dividends, Share Repurchases, and the Substitution Hypothesis , 2000 .

[15]  W. Guay,et al.  The Cash Flow Permanence and Information Content of Dividend Increases vs. Repurchases , 1998 .

[16]  Simon Kuznets,et al.  National Income and its Composition, 1919-1938. , 1942 .

[17]  Sydney C. Ludvigson,et al.  The Declining Equity Premium: What Role Does Macroeconomic Risk Play? , 2008 .

[18]  Rossen Valkanov Long-horizon regressions: theoretical results and applications , 2003 .

[19]  J. Cochrane Explaining the Variance of Price Dividend Ratios , 1989 .

[20]  John Y. Campbell,et al.  Consumption, Income, and Interest Rates: Reinterpreting the Time Series Evidence , 1989, NBER Macroeconomics Annual.

[21]  F. Modigliani,et al.  DIVIDEND POLICY, GROWTH, AND THE VALUATION OF SHARES , 1961 .

[22]  R. Stambaugh,et al.  Predictive Regressions , 1999 .

[23]  Luis M. Viceira Testing for Structural Change in the Predictability of Asset Returns , 1996 .

[24]  J. Shoven,et al.  The Financial Valuation of the Return to Capital , 1980 .

[25]  External Financing and Future Stock Returns , 2003 .

[26]  Brian F. Smith,et al.  Stock Price Volatility, Ordinary Dividends, and Other Cash Flows to Shareholders , 1993 .

[27]  P. Veronesi,et al.  Understanding Predictability , 2004, Journal of Political Economy.

[28]  Are Dividends Disappearing? Dividend Concentration and the Consolidation of Earnings , 2004 .

[29]  Campbell R. Harvey,et al.  Payout Policy in the 21st Century , 2003 .

[30]  R. Shiller,et al.  The Dividend-Price Ratio and Expectations of Future Dividends and Discount Factors , 1986 .

[31]  E. Fama,et al.  The Corporate Cost of Capital and the Return on Corporate Investment , 1998 .

[32]  W. Guay,et al.  The Cash-Flow Permanence and Information Content of Dividend Increases Versus Repurchases , 2000 .

[33]  Robert Whitelaw,et al.  The Myth of Long-Horizon Predictability , 2005 .

[34]  W. Torous,et al.  On Predicting Stock Returns with Nearly Integrated Explanatory Variables , 2004 .

[35]  J. Campbell,et al.  Is There a Corporate Debt Crisis , 1988 .

[36]  Stephen Wright,et al.  Dividends, Total Cash Flow to Shareholders, and Predictive Return Regressions , 2003 .

[37]  Murali Jagannathan,et al.  Financial Flexibility and the Choice between Dividends and Stock Repurchases , 1999 .

[38]  Stephen F. LeRoy,et al.  The Present-Value Relation: Tests Based on Implied Variance Bounds , 1981 .

[39]  S. Wright,et al.  Measures of Stock Market Value and Returns for the U.S. Nonfinancial Corporate Sector, 1900-2002 , 2002 .

[40]  Roni Michaely,et al.  On the Importance of Measuring Payout Yield: Implications for Empirical Asset Pricing , 2007 .

[41]  Amir Yaron,et al.  Interpretable Asset Markets? , 2002 .

[42]  A. Lo,et al.  THE ECONOMETRICS OF FINANCIAL MARKETS , 1996, Macroeconomic Dynamics.

[43]  Andrew Ang,et al.  How to Discount Cashflows with Time-Varying Expected Returns , 2002 .

[44]  James L. Davis,et al.  Characteristics, Covariances, and Average Returns: 1929-1997 , 1999 .

[45]  E. Fama,et al.  BUSINESS CONDITIONS AND EXPECTED RETURNS ON STOCKS AND BONDS , 1989 .

[46]  Harry DeAngelo,et al.  Are Dividends Disappearing? Dividend Concentration and the Consolidation of Earnings , 2002 .

[47]  Raymond W. Goldsmith,et al.  A study of saving in the United States , 1955 .

[48]  Robert E. Hall,et al.  Struggling to Understand the Stock Market , 2001 .

[49]  E. Fama,et al.  Financing Decisions: Who Issues Stock? , 2004 .

[50]  Simon M. Potter,et al.  Understanding Trend and Cycle in Asset Values: Reevaluating the Wealth Effect on Consumption , 2004 .

[51]  John Y. Campbell,et al.  What moves the stock and bond markets , 1991 .

[52]  J. Lewellen,et al.  Predicting Returns with Financial Ratios , 2002 .

[53]  M. Weisbach,et al.  Financial Flexibility and the Choice between Dividends and Stock Repurchases , 1999 .

[54]  John Y. Campbell,et al.  What Moves the Stock and Bond Markets? A Variance Decomposition for Long-Term Asset Returns , 1991 .

[55]  D. Richard,et al.  LeROY, and PORTER, . The Present-Value Relation: Tests Based on Implied Variance Bounds, Econometrica, , . , 1981 .

[56]  E. Fama,et al.  Dividend yields and expected stock returns , 1988 .

[57]  L. Hansen Large Sample Properties of Generalized Method of Moments Estimators , 1982 .

[58]  M. Lettau,et al.  Expected Returns and Expected Dividend Growth , 2002 .

[59]  S. T. Buckland,et al.  An Introduction to the Bootstrap. , 1994 .

[60]  J. Lintner DISTRIBUTION OF INCOMES OF CORPORATIONS AMONG DIVIDENDS, RETAINED EARNINGS AND TAXES , 1956 .

[61]  A Study of Saving in the United States. , 1957 .

[62]  S. Kaplan The Staying Power of Leveraged Buyouts , 1991 .

[63]  J. Robert,et al.  SHILLER, . Do Stock Prices Move Too Much to be Justified by Subsequent Changes in Dividends?, The American Economic Review, , . , 1981 .

[64]  M. Lettau,et al.  Reconciling the Return Predictability Evidence , 2005 .

[65]  Bronwyn H Hall,et al.  The R&D Master File Documentation , 1988 .