Assessment of health benefits from controlling air pollution in Shanghai, China.

The large urban centers of the industrializing countries of the world are experiencing severe air quality problems as their demands for energy increase faster than their ability to afford strong environmental protection. This situation is particularly true in the fast-growing part of Asia, where coal often provides the fuel for power generation and industrial development and where the transportation sector grows unchecked. This paper describes the development of an integrated assessment of urban air quality and mitigation options for the city of Shanghai, China. First, a sector-specific, gridded inventory of emissions of SO{sub 2}, NO{sub x}, and particulate matter (PM) is developed. PM is divided into three size categories (TSP, PM{sub 10}, and PM{sub 2.5}) and split into carbonaceous and mineral classes. The URBAT model, a non-steady-state Lagrangian puff model, and related techniques are used to determine the spatial distribution of ambient concentrations of primary and secondary pollutant species. Damage functions are developed to determine the effects of these levels on human health in the greater Shanghai area. Two control scenarios are developed (for power generation and industry), and their effects on emissions of each species are estimated. The health benefits of the control measures are determined, and their relative costs are calculated. The result is a rudimentary cost-benefit analysis that can be used by urban and environmental planners as a guide for determining the relative effectiveness of taking different courses of action.

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