Research Needs for Understanding and Predicting the Behavior of Managed Ecosystems: Lessons from the Study of Agroecosystems

Managed ecosystems are complex, dynamic systems with spatially varying inputs and outputs that are the result of interrelated physical, biological, and human decision-making processes. To gain an adequate understanding of these systems and predict their behavior, we believe that it is necessary to move beyond stylized theoretical models and loosely coupled disciplinary simulation models to what we describe as “fully integrated models.” Herein we present a conceptual framework for a more integrated approach to the study of managed ecosystems using the example of agricultural ecosystems. We then propose the implementation of a research agenda that fosters coordinated disciplinary research aimed at a better understanding and quantification of linkages across disciplinary models. Key research issues include the effects of spatial scale, the assessment of uncertainty in coupled models, and methods for collecting and analyzing spatially referenced data.

[1]  G. Sylvia,et al.  Multiobjective Bioeconomic Analysis: An Application to the Pacific Whiting Fishery , 1994, Marine Resource Economics.

[2]  Vernon L. Smith,et al.  On Models of Commercial Fishing , 1969, Journal of Political Economy.

[3]  P. Yodzis.  The Indeterminacy of Ecological Interactions as Perceived Through Perturbation Experiments , 1988 .

[4]  Robert M. May,et al.  Stability and Complexity in Model Ecosystems , 2019, IEEE Transactions on Systems, Man, and Cybernetics.

[5]  Heidi J. Albers,et al.  Modeling Ecological Constraints on Tropical Forest Management: Spatial Interdependence, Irreversibility, and Uncertainty , 1996 .

[6]  R. Gerritse,et al.  Leaching models of the unsaturated zone : their potential use for management and planning , 1990 .

[7]  John M. Antle,et al.  Economic Environmental and Health Tradeoffs in Agriculture : Pesticides and the Sustainability of Andean Potato Production , 1997 .

[8]  J. C. Allen.  Factors contributing to chaos in population feedback systems , 1990 .

[9]  K. Paustian,et al.  Modelling soil biology and biochemical processes for sustainable agriculture research. , 1994 .

[10]  Robert L. Kellogg,et al.  Optimal Timing of Harvest for the North Carolina Bay Scallop Fishery , 1988, Fisheries Economics.

[11]  Edward B. Barbier,et al.  Valuing the environment as input: review of applications to mangrove-fishery linkages , 2000 .

[12]  F. D. Whisler,et al.  Crop simulation models in agronomic systems , 1986 .

[13]  F. D. Whisler,et al.  Simulation in Crop Management: GOSSYM/COMAX , 2018, Agricultural Systems modeting and Simulation.

[14]  J. Wilen,et al.  Bioeconomics of Spatial Exploitation in a Patchy Environment , 1999 .

[15]  W. Nordhaus,et al.  The Impact of Global Warming on Agriculture: A Ricardian Analysis: Reply , 1999 .

[16]  H Scottgordon.  The economic theory of a common-property resource: The fishery , 1991 .

[17]  James E. Wilen,et al.  Bioeconomics of renewable resource use , 1985 .

[18]  R. F. Hughes,et al.  The Kyoto protocol and payments for tropical forest: An interdisciplinary method for estimating carbon-offset supply and increasing the feasibility of a carbon market under the CDM , 2000 .

[19]  David S. Powlson,et al.  Evaluation of Soil Organic Matter Models , 1996 .

[20]  Jean-Paul Chavas,et al.  Market Instability and Nonlinear Dynamics , 1993 .

[21]  Max Henrion,et al.  Uncertainty: A Guide to Dealing with Uncertainty in Quantitative Risk and Policy Analysis , 1990 .

[22]  Shunxiang Wu,et al.  Multiple-Objective Decision Making for Agroecosystem Management , 1996, Agricultural and Resource Economics Review.

[23]  D. DeAngelis,et al.  Equilibrium and Nonequilibrium Concepts in Ecological Models , 1987 .

[24]  Colin W. Clark,et al.  Mathematical Bioeconomics: The Optimal Management of Renewable Resources. , 1993 .

[25]  Donald A. Klein,et al.  Simulation model for the effects of climate change on temperate grassland ecosystems , 1991 .

[26]  O. Sala,et al.  Long-Term Forage Production of North American Shortgrass Steppe. , 1992, Ecological applications : a publication of the Ecological Society of America.

[27]  C. Bach.  Economic incentives for sustainable management: a small optimal control model for tropical forestry , 1999 .

[28]  W. Davis Dechert.  Chaos theory in economics : methods, models and evidence , 1996 .

[29]  Keith Paustian,et al.  CO2 Mitigation by Agriculture: An Overview , 1998 .

[30]  Bruce A. McCarl,et al.  A Bioeconomic Analysis of the Texas Shrimp Fishery and Its Optimal Management , 1991 .

[31]  W. Schaffer,et al.  Chaos reduces species extinction by amplifying local population noise , 1993, Nature.

[32]  S. Gordon,et al.  The economic theory of a common-property resource: The fishery , 1991 .

[33]  S. Openshaw.  A million or so correlation coefficients : three experiments on the modifiable areal unit problem , 1979 .

[34]  I. Suárez,et al.  Mastering chaos in ecology , 1999 .

[35]  G. Robertson,et al.  Greenhouse gases in intensive agriculture: contributions of individual gases to the radiative forcing of the atmosphere , 2000, Science.

[36]  Vernon L. Smith,et al.  Economics of Production from Natural Resources , 1974 .

[37]  R. Ruben,et al.  Integrating agricultural research and policy analysis: analytical framework and policy applications for bio-economic modelling , 1998 .

[38]  David Oglethorpe,et al.  An ecological-economic model for agri-environmental policy analysis , 1999 .

[39]  Claire A. Montgomery,et al.  The Marginal Cost of Species Preservation: The Northern Spotted Owl , 1994 .

[40]  Stephen P. Ellner,et al.  Chaos in a Noisy World: New Methods and Evidence from Time-Series Analysis , 1995, The American Naturalist.

[41]  A. Hastings,et al.  Weak trophic interactions and the balance of nature , 1998, Nature.

[42]  Robert Mendelsohn,et al.  Forest Management, Conservation, and Global Timber Markets , 1999 .

[43]  S. Capalbo.  Temporary equilibrium production models for a common-property renewable-resource sector , 1986 .

[44]  J. Sweeney,et al.  Handbook of Natural Resource and Energy Economics , 1986 .

[45]  R. Moss,et al.  Climate change 1995 - impacts, adaptations and mitigation of climate change : scientific-technical analyses , 1997 .

[46]  W. Parton,et al.  A general model for soil organic matter dynamics: sensitivity to litter chemistry, texture and management. , 1994 .

[47]  R. Bruce Curry,et al.  Agricultural Systems modeting and Simulation , 1997 .

[48]  Gideon Kruseman,et al.  Farm household modelling for estimating the effectiveness of price instruments in land use policy , 1995 .

[49]  B. McCarl,et al.  A reassessment of the economic effects of global climate change on U.S. agriculture , 1995 .

[50]  F. J. Pierce,et al.  Impacts of agricultural management practices on C sequestration in forest-derived soils of the eastern Corn Belt , 1998 .

[51]  J. Brander,et al.  The Simple Economics of Easter Island: A Ricardo-Malthus Model of Renewable Resource Use , 1998 .

[52]  P. J. Parks,et al.  Land Use with Heterogeneous Land Quality: An Application of an Area Base Model , 1997 .

[53]  K. Segerson,et al.  The Impact of Climate Change on the United States Economy: Climate change and agriculture: the role of farmer adaptation , 1999 .

[54]  J. Antle,et al.  Econometric‐Process Models for Integrated Assessment of Agricultural Production Systems , 2001 .

[55]  A A Berryman,et al.  Are ecological systems chaotic - And if not, why not? , 1989, Trends in ecology & evolution.

[56]  D. Wilks,et al.  A Farm-Level Analysis of Economic and Agronomic Impacts of Gradual Climate Warming , 1993 .

[57]  M. Goodchild,et al.  Scale in Remote Sensing and GIS , 2023 .

[58]  Kathleen Segerson,et al.  The Impact of Policies and Land Characteristics on Potential Groundwater Pollution in Wisconsin , 1995 .

[59]  Andrew W. Illius,et al.  ON THE RELEVANCE OF NONEQUILIBRIUM CONCEPTS TO ARID AND SEMIARID GRAZING SYSTEMS , 1999 .

[60]  Stephen H. Schneider,et al.  Integrated assessment modeling of global climate change: Transparent rational tool for policy making or opaque screen hiding value‐laden assumptions? , 1997 .

[61]  Kevin J. Boyle,et al.  The Bioeconomics of Resource Rehabilitation: A Commercial-Sport Analysis for a Great Lakes Fishery , 1992 .

[62]  Sherry Larkin,et al.  Intrinsic Fish Characteristics and Intraseason Production Efficiency: A Management‐Level Bioeconomic Analysis of a Commercial Fishery , 1999 .

[63]  M B Thomas,et al.  Ecological approaches and the development of "truly integrated" pest management. , 1999, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America.