Framework for estimating cost of infrastructure adaptation to climate change

Recently, the effects of global climate changes have become top concerns for governments’ decision making regarding infrastructure investments. Extreme weather events that exceed the capacity of existing systems have considerably increased in frequency, and the potential effects of changing trends in temperature and rainfall on infrastructure are difficult to ignore. It is essential for governments to estimate the costs and benefits of adaptation to climate change to properly assess the financial feasibility of infrastructure adaptation strategies. This paper proposes a framework for estimating the economic aspects of infrastructure adaptation to climate change. The framework is composed of three steps of implementation: establishment of alternatives for infrastructure adaptation, performance prediction of infrastructure using future climate scenarios, and asset valuation based on costs and benefits. The first step specifies target assets, their adaptability to climate change, and applicable adaptation technologies. The second step evaluates the effects of climate change on the performance of infrastructure. The last step determines the optimal adaptation strategies among various alternatives based on their net benefits. The framework reasonably incorporates future climate scenarios into the estimation processes for climate change effects and provides a basis for budget allocation for governmental infrastructure investments. The framework is expected to assist government decision makers in establishing adaptation strategies in a rational manner under uncertain future climate change.