The Use of System Dynamics Analysis and Modeling Techniques to Explore Policy Levers in the Fight Against Middle Eastern Terrorist Groups

Abstract : The objective of this project is to use analysis and modeling techniques from Systems Dynamics to capture the causal relationships of Middle Eastern groups' terrorist activities against the United States based on their ideological drivers, as well as the effect of U.S. policies that create dynamics and affect performance and outcomes. The main focus of the analysis is the terrorist groups' human resources. The hypothesis is that Middle Eastern terrorism against the United States is affected by the U.S. level of military presence and/or investment in the Middle Eastern nations. A considerable and lasting reduction in fatalities originated by Middle Eastern groups' terrorist attacks against the United States can be achieved through a policy that reduces both the human resources available to terrorist groups and their attack capability (level of sophistication). The study covers the implications of this resource reduction policy, which may include incremental military investment, defection motivators, anti-terrorism, and the use of counterterrorism operations. These operations will reduce the sophistication as well as the recruitment rate to levels where the functionality of terrorist cells will be impaired, and thus unable to carry out high lethality attacks.

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