Probabilities of inherent shutdown of unprotected events in innovative liquid metal reactors

The uncertainty in predicting the effectiveness of inherent shutdown in innovative liquid metal cooled reactors with metallic fuel results from three broad contributing areas of uncertainty: (1) the inability to exactly predict the frequency of ATWS events with potential to challenge the safety systems and require inherent shutdown; (2) the approximation of representing all such events by a selected set of ''generic scenarios''; and (3) the inability to exactly calculate the core response to the selected generic scenarios. This paper discusses the work being done to address each of these contributing areas, identifies the design and research approaches being used at Argonne National Laboratory to reducing the key contributions to uncertainties in inherent shutdown, and presents results. The conditional probabilities (given ATWS initiation) of achieving temperatures capable of defeating inherent shutdown are shown to range from /approximately/0.1% to negligible for current designs.