Exploration of misperceptions in hypergames

This paper studies adversarial scenarios within the framework of hypergames, where rational players have misperceptions about the game they are involved in. We introduce the notion of inconsistent equilibrium to capture those equilibria of the hypergame that are not perceived by at least one player as an equilibrium in her own game. We identify a class of actions, termed exploratory, that a player can take from an inconsistent equilibrium to improve her payoff (even though such actions are perceived to be sanctioned by other players). We analyze the asymptotic convergence properties of the resulting dynamical system and characterize to what extent misperception can be decreased by the use of exploratory actions.

[1]  Peter G. Bennett,et al.  Hypergames: Developing a model of conflict☆ , 1980 .

[2]  Lyn C. Thomas,et al.  Conflict Analysis: Models and Resolutions , 1985 .

[3]  Branislav L. Slantchev The Principle of Convergence in Wartime Negotiations , 2003, American Political Science Review.

[4]  Frank Harary,et al.  Graph Theory , 2016 .

[5]  M. Dufwenberg Game theory. , 2011, Wiley interdisciplinary reviews. Cognitive science.

[6]  T. Başar,et al.  Dynamic Noncooperative Game Theory , 1982 .

[7]  J. Cortés,et al.  Learning of equilibria and misperceptions in hypergames with perfect observations , 2011, Proceedings of the 2011 American Control Conference.

[8]  D. Teneketzis,et al.  Informational aspects of a class of subjective games of incomplete information: Static case , 1983 .

[9]  Luis G. Vargas Conflict analysis: Models and resolutions: Niall M. FRASER and Keith W. HIPEL Volume 11 in: North-Holland Series in System Science and Engineering, North-Holland, New York, 1984, xx + 377 pages, $34.50 , 1985 .

[10]  Keith W. Hipel,et al.  Solution concepts in hypergames , 1989 .

[11]  Bahman Gharesifard,et al.  Evolution of Players' Misperceptions in Hypergames Under Perfect Observations , 2012, IEEE Transactions on Automatic Control.

[12]  John C. Harsanyi,et al.  Bargaining in ignorance of the opponent's utility function , 1962 .

[13]  Paul E. Lehner,et al.  Using Hypergames to Increase Planned Payoff and Reduce Risk , 2002, Autonomous Agents and Multi-Agent Systems.

[14]  Gordon F. Royle,et al.  Algebraic Graph Theory , 2001, Graduate texts in mathematics.

[15]  John C. Harsanyi,et al.  Games with Incomplete Information Played by "Bayesian" Players, I-III: Part I. The Basic Model& , 2004, Manag. Sci..

[16]  P. Bennett,et al.  Toward a theory of hypergames , 1977 .

[17]  George Cybenko,et al.  Hypergame theory applied to cyber attack and defense , 2010, Defense + Commercial Sensing.