Perturbed Input Ensemble Modeling With the Space Weather Modeling Framework
暂无分享,去创建一个
Daniel T. Welling | Steven K. Morley | D. T. Welling | J. R. Woodroffe | S. Morley | D. Welling | J. Woodroffe | S. K. Morley | Steven K. Morley | Daniel T. Welling
[1] D. Knipp. Advances in Space Weather Ensemble Forecasting , 2016 .
[2] M. Fränz,et al. Heliospheric Coordinate Systems , 2002 .
[3] Frank R. Toffoletto,et al. Magnetic storm ring current injection modeled with the Rice Convection Model and a self‐consistent magnetic field , 2004 .
[4] Robert Tibshirani,et al. Bootstrap Methods for Standard Errors, Confidence Intervals, and Other Measures of Statistical Accuracy , 1986 .
[5] B. Efron. Bootstrap Methods: Another Look at the Jackknife , 1979 .
[6] J. K. Chao,et al. Models for the size and shape of the earth's magnetopause and bow shock , 2002 .
[7] Gabor Toth,et al. Community‐wide validation of geospace model ground magnetic field perturbation predictions to support model transition to operations , 2013 .
[8] Edward S. Epstein,et al. The Role of Initial Uncertainties in Predicion , 1969 .
[9] Christopher T. Russell,et al. A new functional form to study the solar wind control of the magnetopause size and shape , 1997 .
[10] J. King,et al. Solar wind spatial scales in and comparisons of hourly Wind and ACE plasma and magnetic field data , 2005 .
[11] Andrew R. Solow,et al. Bootstrapping correlated data , 1985 .
[12] E. Lorenz. Deterministic nonperiodic flow , 1963 .
[13] Martin Connors,et al. Magnetic flux transfer in the 5 April 2010 Galaxy 15 substorm: an unprecedented observation , 2011 .
[14] F. Toffoletto,et al. Inner magnetospheric modeling with the Rice Convection Model , 2003 .
[15] Hideaki Kawano,et al. The bootstrap method in space physics : error estimation for the minimum variance analysis , 1995 .
[16] J. Sojka,et al. A new global average model of the coupled thermosphere and ionosphere , 2005 .
[17] J. Wild,et al. A statistical comparison of solar wind propagation delays derived from multispacecraft techniques , 2012 .
[18] Steven K. Morley,et al. Determining the significance of associations between two series of discrete events : bootstrap methods / , 2012 .
[19] K.,et al. The Community Earth System Model (CESM) large ensemble project: a community resource for studying climate change in the presence of internal climate variability , 2015 .
[20] Daniel T. Welling,et al. Validation of SWMF magnetic field and plasma , 2010 .
[21] Sophie A. Murray,et al. The Importance of Ensemble Techniques for Operational Space Weather Forecasting , 2018, Space Weather.
[22] Quentin F. Stout,et al. An adaptive MHD method for global space weather simulations , 2000 .
[23] A. Barnston,et al. Multimodel Ensembling in Seasonal Climate Forecasting at IRI , 2003 .
[24] R. A. Mewaldt,et al. The Advanced Composition Explorer , 1988 .
[25] Quentin F. Stout,et al. Adaptive numerical algorithms in space weather modeling , 2012, J. Comput. Phys..
[26] D. L. De Zeeuw,et al. Ionospheric control of the magnetospheric configuration: Thermospheric neutral winds , 2003 .
[27] P. Roe,et al. A Solution-Adaptive Upwind Scheme for Ideal Magnetohydrodynamics , 1999 .
[28] J. Borovsky. The spatial structure of the oncoming solar wind at Earth and the shortcomings of a solar-wind monitor at L1 , 2017, Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics.
[29] Daniel N. Baker,et al. A description of the solar wind-magnetosphere coupling based on nonlinear filters , 1995 .
[30] J. Borovsky. Flux tube texture of the solar wind: Strands of the magnetic carpet at 1 AU?: FLUX TUBE TEXTURE OF SOLAR WIND , 2008 .
[31] S. Morley,et al. Measures of Model Performance Based On the Log Accuracy Ratio , 2018 .
[32] Bruce T. Tsurutani,et al. Rapid evolution of magnetic decreases (MDs) and discontinuities in the solar wind: ACE and Cluster , 2005 .
[33] Steven K. Morley,et al. On the association between northward turnings of the interplanetary magnetic field and substorm onsets , 2007 .
[34] M. Mudelsee,et al. More accurate, calibrated bootstrap confidence intervals for estimating the correlation between two time series , 2014, Mathematical Geosciences.
[35] M. D. Cash,et al. Validation of an operational product to determine L1 to Earth propagation time delays , 2016 .
[36] R. Vogel,et al. The moving blocks bootstrap versus parametric time series models , 1996 .
[37] Edmund Spencer,et al. Forecasting the Dst index during corotating interaction region events using synthesized solar wind parameters , 2012 .
[38] David R. Chesney,et al. Space Weather Modeling Framework: A new tool for the space science community , 2005, Journal of Geophysical Research.
[39] D. Odstrcil,et al. Ensemble Modeling of the 23 July 2012 Coronal Mass Ejection , 2015 .
[40] Tamas I. Gombosi,et al. Ionospheric control of the magnetosphere: conductance , 2004 .
[41] Daniel T. Welling,et al. The effects of dynamic ionospheric outflow on the ring current , 2011 .
[42] J. Linker,et al. On the application of ensemble modeling techniques to improve ambient solar wind models , 2013 .
[43] J. Wanliss,et al. High-resolution global storm index: Dst versus SYM-H , 2006 .
[44] G. Crowley,et al. Exploring predictive performance: A reanalysis of the geospace model transition challenge , 2017 .
[45] Tim Palmer,et al. Uncertainty in weather and climate prediction , 2011, Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences.
[46] Tim N. Palmer,et al. The Impact of El Niño on an Ensemble of Extended-Range Forecasts , 1987 .
[47] H. Künsch. The Jackknife and the Bootstrap for General Stationary Observations , 1989 .
[48] Stein Haaland,et al. What is the best method to calculate the solar wind propagation delay , 2008 .
[49] Antti Pulkkinen,et al. Minimum variance analysis‐based propagation of the solar wind observations: Application to real‐time global magnetohydrodynamic simulations , 2009 .
[50] D. Stephenson. Use of the “Odds Ratio” for Diagnosing Forecast Skill , 2000 .
[51] Michelle F. Thomsen,et al. Why Kp is such a good measure of magnetospheric convection , 2004 .
[52] Elisa V. Quintana,et al. Local variations of interplanetary magnetic field at Earth's bow shock , 1999 .
[53] Joseph E. Borovsky,et al. Looking for evidence of mixing in the solar wind from 0.31 to 0.98 AU , 2012 .
[54] P. Mayaud,et al. Derivation, Meaning, and Use of Geomagnetic Indices , 1980 .
[55] Brian P. Weaver,et al. Dynamic linear models for forecasting of radiation belt electrons and limitations on physical interpretation of predictive models , 2014 .
[56] V. Uritsky,et al. Ensemble forecasting of major solar flares: First results , 2015, 1504.04571.
[57] Juan Alejandro Valdivia,et al. The Earth’s Magnetosphere: A Systems Science Overview and Assessment , 2018, Surveys in Geophysics.
[58] David G. Sibeck,et al. Kp forecast models , 2005 .
[59] David J. C. Mackay,et al. Introduction to Monte Carlo Methods , 1998, Learning in Graphical Models.
[60] I. Nakatani,et al. Geotail Mission to explore Earth's magnetotail , 1992 .
[61] M. Webb,et al. Quantification of modelling uncertainties in a large ensemble of climate change simulations , 2004, Nature.
[62] T. B. Guild,et al. Effects of Uncertainties in Electric Field Boundary Conditions for Ring Current Simulations , 2018 .
[63] Daniel T. Welling,et al. SWMF Global Magnetosphere Simulations of January 2005: Geomagnetic Indices and Cross‐Polar Cap Potential , 2017 .