Syndromes of global change

A novel transdisciplinary description of the mega-process called \Global Change" in terms of functional patterns (\Syndromes") is presented. This approach to environmental analysis is inspired by medical sciences, where syndromes are perceived as typical combinations of pertinent co-factors. Sixteen main syndromes are identi ed as the subdynamics generating the world-wide environment and development process with all its negative aspects and impacts. The analysis relies on a speci c semi-qualitative methodology, which brings together elements from complex systems theory, fuzzy logic and expert-judgment evaluations. The concept is illustrated by in-depth treatment and comparison of the syndromes Sahel" and \Green Revolution". As a corollary of the syndrome approach, a simple operational de nition of \Sustainable Development" is suggested.

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