DOMIFFECT (DOMIno eFFECT): user-friendly software for domino effect analysis

Abstract Most of the past risk assessment studies deal with accidents in a single industry, more so in one of the units of an industry. However, it is always possible that an accident in one unit can cause a secondary accident in a nearby unit which in turn may trigger a tertiary accident, and so on. The probability of occurrence and adverse impacts of such domino or cascading effects are increasing due to increasing congestion in industrial complexes and increasing density of human population around such complexes. This is particularly so in developing countries. The recent disaster at a refinery in Vishakhapatnam, India, which claimed over 60 lives and damaged property worth Rs 600 million, has brought the damage potential of domino effect into sharp focus. This paper presents a new computer automated tool DOMIFFECT (DOMIno eFFECT) which is the first ever such tool reported for studying domino effects. The package is capable of a) estimating the hazards of fire, explosion, toxic release, or combination of these present in a chemical process industry; b) the damage potential of likely accidents, assessed on the basis of credible scenarios the tool develops; c) the likelihood of a second accident being triggered by the first, d) the scenarios of the second accident, their damage potential, and the probability of their causing a third accident (steps similar to a–c above), and so on. The software has been coded in C++ and has the attributes i) wide applicability, ii) sophistication, iii) user friendliness, and iv) flexibility for improvement.