Nonlinear Pricing Kernels, Kurtosis Preference, and Evidence from the Cross Section of Equity Returns

This paper investigates nonlinear pricing kernels in which the risk factor is endogenously determined and preferences restrict the definition of the pricing kernel. These kernels potentially generate the empirical performance of nonlinear and multifactor models, while maintaining empirical power and avoiding ad hoc specifications of factors or functional form. Our test results indicate that preferencerestricted nonlinear pricing kernels are both admissible for the cross section of returns and are able to significantly improve upon linear single- and multifactor kernels. Further, the nonlinearities in the pricing kernel drive out the importance of the factors in the linear multi-factor model.

[1]  P. Samuelson Risk and uncertainty: a fallacy of large numbers , 1963 .

[2]  B. King Market and Industry Factors in Stock Price Behavior , 1966 .

[3]  Fred D. Arditti RISK AND THE REQUIRED RETURN ON EQUITY , 1967 .

[4]  Richard B. Darlington,et al.  Is Kurtosis Really “Peakedness?” , 1970 .

[5]  R. C. Merton,et al.  AN INTERTEMPORAL CAPITAL ASSET PRICING MODEL , 1973 .

[6]  G. William Schwert,et al.  Asset returns and inflation , 1977 .

[7]  Richard Roll,et al.  A Critique of the Asset Pricing Theory''s Tests: Part I , 1977 .

[8]  David M. Kreps,et al.  Martingales and arbitrage in multiperiod securities markets , 1979 .

[9]  R. Stambaugh,et al.  On the exclusion of assets from tests of the two-parameter model: A sensitivity analysis , 1982 .

[10]  L. Hansen LARGE SAMPLE PROPERTIES OF GENERALIZED METHOD OF , 1982 .

[11]  J. Campbell Stock Returns and the Term Structure , 1985 .

[12]  David P. Brown,et al.  A Simple Econometric Approach for Utility‐Based Asset Pricing Models , 1985 .

[13]  R. Mehra,et al.  THE EQUITY PREMIUM A Puzzle , 1985 .

[14]  George Tauchen,et al.  Statistical Properties of Generalized Method-of-Moments Estimators of Structural Parameters Obtained From Financial Market Data , 1986 .

[15]  W. Newey,et al.  A Simple, Positive Semi-Definite, Heteroskedasticity and Autocorrelationconsistent Covariance Matrix , 1986 .

[16]  Richard J. Zeckhauser,et al.  Proper risk aversion , 1987 .

[17]  W. Newey,et al.  Hypothesis Testing with Efficient Method of Moments Estimation , 1987 .

[18]  E. Fama,et al.  Dividend yields and expected stock returns , 1988 .

[19]  E. Fama,et al.  BUSINESS CONDITIONS AND EXPECTED RETURNS ON STOCKS AND BONDS , 1989 .

[20]  P. Weil The equity premium puzzle and the risk-free rate puzzle , 1989 .

[21]  A. Lo,et al.  Data-Snooping Biases in Tests of Financial Asset Pricing Models , 1989 .

[22]  W. Ferson Changes in Expected Security Returns, Risk, and the Level of Interest Rates , 1989 .

[23]  Campbell R. Harvey Time-Varying Conditional Covariances in Tests of Asset Pricing Models , 1989 .

[24]  R. Gibbons,et al.  Empirical Tests of the Consumption-Oriented CAPM , 1989 .

[25]  Jay Shanken,et al.  Intertemporal asset pricing: An Empirical Investigation , 1990 .

[26]  Ravi Jagannathan,et al.  Implications of Security Market Data for Models of Dynamic Economies , 1990, Journal of Political Economy.

[27]  E. Fama,et al.  Efficient Capital Markets : II , 2007 .

[28]  Miles S. Kimball,et al.  Standard Risk Aversion , 1991 .

[29]  Campbell R. Harvey,et al.  The Variation of Economic Risk Premiums , 1990, Journal of Political Economy.

[30]  E. Prescott,et al.  Banking in computable general equilibrium economies , 1992 .

[31]  E. Fama,et al.  Common risk factors in the returns on stocks and bonds , 1993 .

[32]  S. Viswanathan,et al.  A New Approach to International Arbitrage Pricing , 1993 .

[33]  B. Dumas,et al.  The World Price of Foreign Exchange Risk , 1993 .

[34]  S. Viswanathan,et al.  No Arbitrage and Arbitrage Pricing: A New Approach , 1993 .

[35]  Wayne E. Ferson,et al.  Finite sample properties of the generalized method of moments in tests of conditional asset pricing models , 1994 .

[36]  Ravi Jagannathan,et al.  Assessing Specification Errors in Stochastic Discount Factor Models , 1994 .

[37]  E. Fama,et al.  Size and Book-to-Market Factors in Earnings and Returns , 1995 .

[38]  J. Caballe,et al.  Mixed Risk Aversion , 1995 .

[39]  Zhiwu Chen,et al.  Portfolio Performance Measurement: Theory and Applications , 1996 .

[40]  A. Lo,et al.  THE ECONOMETRICS OF FINANCIAL MARKETS , 1996, Macroeconomic Dynamics.

[41]  John H. Cochrane,et al.  A Cross-Sectional Test of an Investment-Based Asset Pricing Model , 1996, Journal of Political Economy.

[42]  John Y. Campbell,et al.  Understanding Risk and Return , 1993, Journal of Political Economy.

[43]  E. Fama,et al.  Multifactor Explanations of Asset Pricing Anomalies , 1996 .

[44]  R. Jagannathan,et al.  The Conditional CAPM and the Cross-Section of Expected Returns , 1996 .

[45]  David A. Chapman Approximating the asset pricing kernel , 1997 .

[46]  Tsong-Yue Lai,et al.  Co-Kurtosis and Capital Asset Pricing , 1997 .

[47]  Mark Grinblatt,et al.  Do Industries Explain Momentum , 1999 .

[48]  Campbell R. Harvey,et al.  Conditional Skewness in Asset Pricing Tests , 1999 .

[49]  Paul Söderlind,et al.  Evaluating Portfolio Performance with Stochastic Discount Factors , 2010 .