PREDICTION OF BRIDGE SERVICE LIFE USING TIME-DEPENDENT RELIABILITY ANALYSIS

A bridge deterioration model is an essential component of a computerised bridge management system (BMS). Existing BMSs use Markov chain theory to model the deterioration process as a decay of condition ratings over time. An alternative approach, based on time-dependent reliability theory, is proposed. The new approach is in principle a generalisation of the Markov chain models. Rather than addressing the stochastic nature of condition rating the proposed approach seeks to model the random time using survival analysis. (A) For the covering abstract see IRRD 882313.