A Simple Model Established by Blood Markers Predicting Overall Survival After Radical Resection of Pancreatic Ductal Adenocarcinoma

Background: The prognostic prediction after radical resection of pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC) has not been well-established. We aimed to establish a prognostic model for PDAC based on a new score system, which included a clinical routine serum marker. Methods: A total of 438 patients who underwent curative PDAC at the First Affiliated Hospital of Anhui Medical University from January 2007 to January 2014 were included in this study. Univariate and multivariate analyses were used to screen for prognostic risk factors. We constructed the nomogram based on Cox proportional hazard regression models. The construction of the new score models was analyzed by the receiver operator characteristic curve (ROC curve), which were compared with other clinical indexes. Results: Multivariate analysis showed that TNM stage, CA199, CEA, globulin, neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR), and lymphocyte-to-monocyte ratio (LMR) were independent prognostic factors. The new score system had a higher AUC value than other risk factors, and the C-index of the nomogram was highly consistent for evaluating survival of PDAC patients in the validation groups and training group, and the external population also verified the nomogram. Conclusions: For the patients with PDAC after radical surgery, we developed a precise model to predict the prognosis based on the serum markers and other clinical indicators. For surgeons and patients, this score system can be an effective help.

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