Dynamic Arrival Routes: A Trajectory-Based Weather Avoidance System for Merging Arrivals and Metering

Convective weather can cause arrival traffic to fly less efficient weather avoidance routes and is the primary cause for time-based metering to be discontinued. Dynamic Arrival Routes (DAR) is a trajectory-based weather avoidance system that is designed to help improve arrival traffic flow when weather is present. The DAR system continuously analyzes airborne arrival flights for opportunities to reroute them to more efficient arrival routes or around weather that is predicted to be on their current flight plan early enough to allow the arrival time-based metering system to adjust its times of arrival for the presence of weather. Analysis of 93 hours of actual traffic over 12 different days from Fort Worth Center showed DAR proposed more efficient arrival reroutes for 352 arrival flights for an average time savings of 12.3 minutes per flight at a look-ahead time of 60 minutes from the meter fix. DAR also identified 642 arrival flights with a need to deviate around weather and proposed weather avoidance routes that were analytically shown to remain weather-free 83 percent of the time for a look-ahead time of 30 minutes from the meter fix.