Entering Stage III. The Convergence of the Stage Hypotheses

There have been a number of theories developed that postulate that information systems develop through predictable stages. If these theories are correct, then they can be useful planning tools. But how do we know until afterward if any of them will prove to be correct? and what good are they if we don’t know until afterward? The answer is of course that we really can’t know absolutely until afterward, BUT there is a very intriguing phenomenon taking place that may give us some confidence in some of our predictions. The major hypotheses about the stages through which information technology will pass, although starting from very different points of view, are all converging on the same conclusion-that we are now at a major transition point, transiting from the second stage of computerized information system development into the third stage. Of course that convergence might possibly of course be only a coincidence, but it is far more likely that it is corroboratory rather than merely coincidental, and that the theories do reflect some underlying reality (Fig. 1). Figure 2 shows how the major stage hypothesis will look if we lay them out side by side. They look like this: By way of clarity and background, it needs to be mentioned that there are two classes of predictive stage hypotheses for information systems. The first class are the life cycle hypotheses that posit that there is a predictable life cycle of development as each major new information technology comes along, word processing, or microcomputers, or CD-ROMS. These are the cyclical or repetitive hypotheses. The second class are the noncyclical nonrepetitive hypotheses that try to predict broad spectrum maturational stages of overall information technology growth. It is this second class of stage hypotheses that are converging.