Forecasting Electricity Consumption based on Smart Metering Case Study in Latvia

Purpose and rationale for this study is based case study research within the first smart metering pilot project in Latvia „Promotion of energy efficiency in households, using smart technologies”. This pilot brings new opportunities for exploiting smart metering efficiency and reliability for boosting energy energy efficiency measures and demand response programs in household sector. The overall question raised within this study is how electricity consumption in households will change in the future. Trying to answer this question the aim of the study has accordingly been to forecast electricity consumption in 500 „target group” households involved in this pilot. By combining evaluation of baseline situation, the planned results from the pilot project and demand response predictions, 3 scenarios for forecasting has been presented. Based on various assumptions described in this study, the overall forecasting result shows that users’ behaviour and demand response has a significant impact on future electricity consumption. Finally, the paper provides further research directions for smart systems use in perspective to achieve energy efficiency goals in the future. Key-Words: Smart metering, electricity consumption, electricity forecasting, energy efficiency, household, historical data analysis, demand response

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