SIRIUS, Seismic Risk Indicator in Urban Space

Despite numerous research efforts in recent years, seismic risk continues to be difficult to perceive and communicate. Although researchers have access to sophisticated tools that can quantify seismic risk, such groups as public authorities, land use and urban planners, stakeholders, end-users, and citizens should also be able to access simple seismic risk information. Thus, SIRIUS was built and mapped into a scale following the Weber and Fechner perception law, with impacts described in a simple yet meaningful language while capturing the two most fundamental dimensions that explain risk variability along the urban space: the reliability deficit and human concentration. With SIRIUS, at-risk places and the reasons why seismic risk is a concern are easy to identify and communicate. To illustrate the potential of this robust indicator, an application of SIRIUS to the city of Lisbon is presented.

[1]  Infrastructure interdependency analysis : Introductory research review , 2022 .

[2]  Lubos Buzna,et al.  Modelling of cascading effects and efficient response to disaster spreading in complex networks , 2008, Int. J. Crit. Infrastructures.

[3]  M. Neuman The Compact City Fallacy , 2005 .

[4]  S. Turner,et al.  Emile Durkheim: Sociologist and Moralist , 1995 .

[5]  George B. Dantzig The ORSA New Orleans Address on Compact City , 1973 .

[6]  R. Davidson An urban earthquake disaster risk index , 1997 .

[7]  Estimating Human Losses in Earthquake Models: A Discussion , 2011 .

[8]  J. Desyllas,et al.  Pedestrian demand modelling of large cities: an applied example from London , 2003 .

[9]  Douglas W. Hubbard,et al.  How to Measure Anything: Finding the Value of "Intangibles" in Business , 2007 .

[10]  Sidika Tekeli-Yeşil,et al.  Factors Motivating Individuals to Take Precautionary Action for an Expected Earthquake in Istanbul , 2010, Risk analysis : an official publication of the Society for Risk Analysis.

[11]  R. Sampson,et al.  ASSESSING "NEIGHBORHOOD EFFECTS": Social Processes and New Directions in Research , 2002 .

[12]  D. Deere,et al.  Water Quality : Guidelines , Standards and Health , 2003 .

[13]  Sonia Giovinazzi,et al.  The vulnerability assessment of current buildings by a macroseismic approach derived from the EMS-98 scale , 2007 .

[14]  R. Burdge,et al.  The Concepts, Process and Methods of Social Impact Assessment , 2004 .

[15]  Roger Bilham,et al.  The seismic future of cities , 2009 .

[16]  B. Roberts Changes in Urban Density: Its Implications on the Sustainable Development of Australian Cities , 2007 .

[17]  Leonardo Dueñas-Osorio,et al.  Cascading failures in complex infrastructure systems , 2009 .

[18]  R. L. Keeney,et al.  Decisions with Multiple Objectives: Preferences and Value Trade-Offs , 1977, IEEE Transactions on Systems, Man, and Cybernetics.

[19]  A. Tversky,et al.  Prospect theory: an analysis of decision under risk — Source link , 2007 .

[20]  Alex Anas,et al.  Curbing Excess Sprawl with Congestion Tolls and Urban Boundaries , 2006 .

[21]  Julie-Maude Normandin,et al.  1 CITY STRENGTH IN TIMES OF TURBULANCE : STRATEGIC RESILIENCE INDICATORS , 2009 .

[22]  J. Jacobs The Death and Life of Great American Cities , 1962 .

[23]  S. Lagomarsino,et al.  A MACROSEISMIC METHOD FOR THE VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT OF BUILDINGS , 2002 .

[24]  M. L. Carreño,et al.  Urban Seismic Risk Evaluation: A Holistic Approach , 2007 .

[25]  Leonardo Dueñas-Osorio,et al.  Interdependent Response of Networked Systems to Natural Hazards and Intentional Disruptions , 2005 .

[26]  Joost R. Santos,et al.  Extreme Risk Analysis of Interdependent Economic and Infrastructure Sectors , 2007, Risk analysis : an official publication of the Society for Risk Analysis.

[27]  F. B. Vernadat,et al.  Decisions with Multiple Objectives: Preferences and Value Tradeoffs , 1994 .

[28]  Mihailo D. Trifunac,et al.  On the correlation of seismic intensity scales with the peaks of recorded strong ground motion , 1975 .

[29]  Yacov Y Haimes,et al.  Systemic Valuation of Strategic Preparedness Through Application of the Inoperability Input‐Output Model with Lessons Learned from Hurricane Katrina , 2007, Risk analysis : an official publication of the Society for Risk Analysis.

[30]  Howard Kunreuther,et al.  Making Low Probabilities Useful , 2001 .

[31]  Louis Anthony Tony Cox What's wrong with hazard-ranking systems? An expository note. , 2009, Risk analysis : an official publication of the Society for Risk Analysis.