Risk analysis on classified forecast dispatching mode based on stochastic simulative method

Reservoir flood control classified by forecast dispatching mode is a new dispatching method.The risk is the key problem of classified forecast dispathing.In order to analyze the risk of the new dispatching mode,stochastic simulative method has been used.The highest water level and maximum outflow are taken as the risk indexes.According to the comparison results between classified forecast dispatching regulation and unclassified forecast dispatching regulation,the risk of classified forecast dispatching mode can be analyzed.Study results show that compared with unclassified forecast dispatching mode,the classified typical flood process selection does not add the risk of flood classified forecast dispatching and oppositely,because classified forecast dispatching mode can provide more regulations that will make up for the adaptability of single regulation,the flood control requirement of different kinds of flood processes can be satisfied.