Alcohol and fatal accidents in the United States--a time series analysis for 1950-2002.

AIMS To estimate the association between per capita alcohol consumption and fatal accidents in the United States and to compare the outcome with findings from Europe and Canada. DATA AND METHOD Yearly data on fatal accidents by gender and age were analysed in relation to per capita alcohol consumption for 1950-2002 using the Box-Jenkins technique for time series analysis. FINDINGS A 1-L increase in per capita consumption was on average followed by 4.4 male deaths per 100,000 inhabitants, but had no significant effect on female accident mortality. Regarding specific categories of accidents, the effect on fatal motor vehicle accidents accounted for a large part of the overall effect for men and was also significant for women. With respect to fatal falling accidents and other accidents, the only significant effects were found among young males. As concerns women, the association with per capita consumption in the US was weak in comparison with Canada and Europe. The US effect estimate for overall male accidents was however equally strong as in Northern Europe (5.2) or Canada (5.9), and stronger than that found in Central and Southern Europe (2.1 and 1.6, respectively). With respect to alcohol and fatal motor vehicle accidents, the association for men of 3.2 was stronger than in Europe and more similar to the Canadian finding (3.6). CONCLUSIONS Per capita alcohol consumption has at least partly been an explanation for the development of male fatal accidents and particularly motor vehicle accident rates in the post-war United States. High traffic density and relatively high legal limits for drunken driving blood alcohol concentration (BAC) are suggested to explain the strong association found between alcohol and fatal motor vehicle accidents. The results also suggest that a reduction in per capita consumption would have its most preventive impact on fatal accidents among younger males.

[1]  J. Howland,et al.  Alcohol and non-traffic unintended injuries. , 1993, Addiction.

[2]  T. Norström.  The use of aggregate data in alcohol epidemiology. , 1989, British journal of addiction.

[3]  Robert B Noland,et al.  Traffic fatalities and injuries: the effect of changes in infrastructure and other trends. , 2003, Accident; analysis and prevention.

[4]  P. Mäkelä.  Alcohol-related mortality by age and sex and its impact on life expectancy , 1998 .

[5]  George E. P. Box,et al.  Time Series Analysis: Forecasting and Control , 1977 .

[6]  M. Ramstedt,et al.  Mortality and population drinking: a review of the literature. , 2005, Drug and alcohol review.

[7]  J. Rehm,et al.  Accidents, suicide and violence , 2001 .

[8]  B. Brismar,et al.  The significance of alcohol for violence and accidents. , 1998, Alcoholism, clinical and experimental research.

[9]  T. Greenfield,et al.  The alcohol content of wine consumed in the US and per capita consumption: new estimates reveal different trends. , 2006, Alcoholism, clinical and experimental research.

[10]  G. Gmel,et al.  Mapping the social consequences of alcohol consumption. , 2001 .

[11]  T. Greenfield,et al.  National and state estimates of the mean ethanol content of beer sold in the US and their impact on per capita consumption estimates: 1988 to 2001. , 2004, Alcoholism, clinical and experimental research.

[12]  K. Komro,et al.  Alcohol and Public Policy: Evidence and Issues , 1997 .

[13]  T R Miller,et al.  Fatal nontraffic injuries involving alcohol: A metaanalysis. , 1999, Annals of emergency medicine.

[14]  Alan D. Lopez,et al.  Comparative quantification of health risks. Global and regional burden of disease attributable to selected major risk factors. Volume 1. , 2004 .

[15]  O J Skog,et al.  Alcohol consumption and overall accident mortality in 14 European countries. , 2001, Addiction.

[16]  Alan D. Lopez,et al.  Comparative quantification of health risks: Conceptual framework and methodological issues , 2003, Population health metrics.

[17]  Ole-Jørgen Skog,et al.  Alcohol consumption and fatal accidents in Canada, 1950-98. , 2003, Addiction.