Anchoring is Not a False-Positive: Maniadis, Tufano, and List's (2014) 'Failure-to-Replicate' is Actually Entirely Consistent with the Original

We revisit a recent failure-to-replicate the finding that arbitrary anchors influence monetary valuations. Though in the replication the point estimate is indeed not significantly different from zero, it is also not significantly different from a sizable effect. This is partially explained by a high share of valuations near $0 in the replication, causing a floor effect and augmenting the impact of rounding error. P-curve analysis of the original paper overwhelmingly rejects the possibility that the evidence for anchoring effects is false-positive..

[1]  L. Harlow,et al.  Testing “Small,” not Null, Hypotheses: Classical and Bayesian Approaches , 2016 .

[2]  U. Simonsohn.  Small Telescopes , 2014, Psychological science.

[3]  Reginald B. Adams,et al.  Investigating Variation in Replicability: A “Many Labs” Replication Project , 2014 .

[4]  Daniel Mochon,et al.  Anchoring in sequential judgments , 2013 .

[5]  Leif D. Nelson,et al.  P-Curve: A Key to the File Drawer , 2013, Journal of experimental psychology. General.

[6]  M. Dempster,et al.  Psychology Statistics For Dummies , 2012 .

[7]  Daniel Mochon,et al.  A scale distortion theory of anchoring. , 2012, Journal of experimental psychology. General.

[8]  Leif D. Nelson,et al.  False-Positive Psychology , 2011, Psychological science.

[9]  Leif D. Nelson,et al.  The Effect of Accuracy Motivation on Anchoring and Adjustment: Do People Adjust from Provided Anchors? , 2010, Journal of personality and social psychology.

[10]  Noel T Brewer,et al.  The Influence of Irrelevant Anchors on the Judgments and Choices of Doctors and Patients , 2007, Medical decision making : an international journal of the Society for Medical Decision Making.

[11]  N. Epley,et al.  The Anchoring-and-Adjustment Heuristic , 2006, Psychological science.

[12]  D. Ariely,et al.  Tom Sawyer and the Construction of Value , 2005 .

[13]  N. Epley,et al.  When effortful thinking influences judgmental anchoring: differential effects of forewarning and incentives on self‐generated and externally provided anchors , 2005 .

[14]  Vanda Broughton,et al.  Sage Dictionary of Statistics: A Practical Resource for Students in the Social Sciences , 2005 .

[15]  Thomas Gilovich,et al.  Are Adjustments Insufficient? , 2004, Personality & social psychology bulletin.

[16]  D. Ariely,et al.  “Coherent Arbitrariness”: Stable Demand Curves Without Stable Preferences , 2003 .

[17]  Eric J. Johnson,et al.  Anchoring, Activation, and the Construction of Values. , 1999, Organizational behavior and human decision processes.

[18]  Stephen J. Hoch,et al.  An Anchoring and Adjustment Model of Purchase Quantity Decisions , 1998 .

[19]  D. Kahneman,et al.  Measures of Anchoring in Estimation Tasks , 1995 .

[20]  Eric J. Johnson,et al.  The limits of anchoring. , 1994 .

[21]  G. Northcraft,et al.  Experts, amateurs, and real estate: An anchoring-and-adjustment perspective on property pricing decisions , 1987 .

[22]  Stephen J. Hoch,et al.  An Anchoring and Adjustment Model of Spousal Predictions , 1986 .

[23]  Helena C. Kraemer,et al.  Theory of Estimation and Testing of Effect Sizes: Use in Meta-Analysis , 1983 .

[24]  Edward J. Joyce,et al.  Anchoring and Adjustment In Probabilistic Inference in Auditing , 1981 .

[25]  J. L. Hodges,et al.  Testing the Approximate Validity of Statistical Hypotheses , 1954 .

[26]  John A. List,et al.  One swallow doesn’t make a summer: new evidence on anchoring effects , 2014 .

[27]  D. Prelec,et al.  Contrast Effects in Consumer Judgments : Changes in Mental Representations or in the Anchoring of Rating Scales ? , 2007 .

[28]  Ronald C. Serlin,et al.  Rational appraisal of psychological research and the good-enough principle. , 1993 .

[29]  S. Plous,et al.  Thinking the Unthinkable : The Effects of Anchoring on Likelihood Estimates of Nuclear Warl , 1989 .

[30]  Ronald C. Serlin,et al.  Rationality in psychological research: The good-enough principle. , 1985 .

[31]  A. Greenwald.  Consequences of Prejudice Against the Null Hypothesis , 1975 .