Modeling risk perception in ATIS context through Fuzzy Logic

Abstract This research is aimed at investigating the effect of accuracy of ATIS (Advanced Traveller Information Systems) in terms of route choices and travellers concordance to informative system. A Stated Preference Experiment has been made by using a Travel Simulator developed at the Technische Universiteit of Delft (The Netherlands). During the experiment respondents have been asked to make repeated route choices in presence of ATIS. Two kinds of information have been tested: descriptive (respondents are provided with the estimated travel times on each route), and prescriptive (respondents are provided with the estimated shortest route). For each kind of information four levels of accuracy have been considered: high, low and two intermediate levels. The main research aims are: 1. investigating the relationship between accuracy of information and travellers concordance to informative system; 2. investigating the relationship between accuracy of information and route choices. Some preliminary aggregate and statistical analyses have been made; additionally, collected data have been deeply analyzed, and a fuzzy logic approach has been applied in order to reproduce the travellers behaviour.

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