Estimating Populations at Risk for Disaster Preparedness and Response

This paper presents a practical approach to the problem of estimating the size and location of the population likely to be affected in a natural or man-made (bioterrorist) disaster. It discusses the currently available sources of population data and details several methods for converting this data into geographic units appropriate for disaster preparedness and response. It also demonstrates how to estimate affected populations on-the-fly, in response to a disaster, and how to maintain updated data in preparation for future unplanned events. Examples implementing these methods are given, and their utility is compared in different situations.