Effect of roadway geometrics and environmental factors on rural freeway accident frequencies.

This paper explores the frequency of occurrence of highway accidents on the basis of a multivariate analysis of roadway geometrics (e.g. horizontal and vertical alignments), weather, and other seasonal effects. Based on accident data collected in the field, a negative binomial model of overall accident frequencies is estimated along with models of the frequency of specific accident types. Interactions between weather and geometric variables are proposed as part of the model specifications. The results of the analysis uncover important determinants of accident frequency. By studying the relationship between weather and geometric elements, this paper offers insight into potential measures to counter the adverse effects of weather on highway sections with challenging geometrics.

[1]  M. Woodbury,et al.  A variance components approach to categorical data models with heterogeneous cell populations: analysis of spatial gradients in lung cancer mortality rates in North Carolina counties. , 1981, Biometrics.

[2]  Jan Engel.  Models for response data showing extra-Poisson variation , 1984 .

[3]  C C Wright,et al.  ACCIDENT "MIGRATION" AFTER REMEDIAL TREATMENT AT ACCIDENT BLACKSPOTS , 1984 .

[4]  D. R. D. Mcguigan.  Accident «migration» ― or a flight of fancy? , 1985 .

[5]  W. Piegorsch.  Maximum likelihood estimation for the negative binomial dispersion parameter. , 1990, Biometrics.

[6]  Y D Wong,et al.  Driver behaviour at horizontal curves: risk compensation and the margin of safety. , 1992, Accident; analysis and prevention.

[7]  Fred L. Mannering,et al.  Principles of Highway Engineering and Traffic Analysis , 1990 .

[8]  D L Massie,et al.  Development of a collision typology for evaluation of collision avoidance strategies. , 1993, Accident; analysis and prevention.

[9]  N. Breslow.  Extra‐Poisson Variation in Log‐Linear Models , 1984 .

[10]  Lindsay I. Griffin,et al.  Predicting wet weather accidents , 1981 .

[11]  P. McCullagh,et al.  Generalized Linear Models , 1992 .

[12]  H Lum,et al.  Modeling vehicle accidents and highway geometric design relationships. , 1993, Accident; analysis and prevention.

[13]  M. J. Maher.  Accident migration: a statistical explanation? , 1987 .

[14]  Jerzy Neyman,et al.  Contributions to the Theory of Accident Proneness. 1. An Optimistic Model of the Correlation Between Light and Severe Accidents , 1952 .

[15]  Gil A. Frisbie.  Ehrenberg's Negative Binomial Model Applied to Grocery Store Trips , 1980 .

[16]  Paul P Jovanis,et al.  EXPOSURE-BASED ANALYSIS OF MOTOR VEHICLE ACCIDENTS , 1983 .

[17]  M. Maher,et al.  A new bivariate negative binomial model for accident frequencies , 1991 .

[18]  John R. Treat,et al.  A study of precrash factors involved in traffic accidents , 1980 .

[19]  F Mannering,et al.  Analysis of the frequency and duration of freeway accidents in Seattle. , 1991, Accident; analysis and prevention.

[20]  Hsin-Li Chang,et al.  MODELING THE RELATIONSHIP OF ACCIDENTS TO MILES TRAVELED , 1986 .

[21]  F. Mannering,et al.  Brand Loyalty and the Decline of American Automobile Firms , 1991 .

[22]  A S Hakkert,et al.  Risk of a road accident in rainy weather. , 1988, Accident; analysis and prevention.

[23]  S. Miaou.  The relationship between truck accidents and geometric design of road sections: Poisson versus negative binomial regressions. , 1994, Accident; analysis and prevention.

[24]  S J Senn,et al.  ACCIDENT BLACKSPOTS AND THE BIVARIATE NEGATIVE BINOMIAL , 1988 .

[25]  A. Cameron,et al.  Econometric models based on count data. Comparisons and applications of some estimators and tests , 1986 .

[26]  Fred L. Mannering,et al.  Temporal stability of travelers' activity choice and home-stay duration: Some empirical evidence , 1994 .

[27]  H Okamoto,et al.  A method to cope with the random errors of observed accident rates in regression analysis. , 1989, Accident; analysis and prevention.

[28]  Daniel Hellerstein,et al.  Using Count Data Models in Travel Cost Analysis with Aggregate Data , 1991 .

[29]  Rashad Mohammed Hanbali.  Influence of winter road maintenance on traffic accident rates , 1992 .

[30]  J. Lawless.  Negative binomial and mixed Poisson regression , 1987 .

[31]  Sarath C. Joshua,et al.  Estimating truck accident rate and involvements using linear and poisson regression models , 1990 .

[32]  James C Snyder.  ENVIRONMENTAL DETERMINANTS OF TRAFFIC ACCIDENTS: AN ALTERNATE MODEL , 1974 .

[33]  M J Maher,et al.  A bivariate negative binomial model to explain traffic accident migration. , 1990, Accident; analysis and prevention.

[34]  A. Cameron,et al.  Regression-based tests for overdispersion in the Poisson model☆ , 1990 .