Evaluation of Compound Probabilities in Sequential Choice

SITUATIONS frequently occur in which a successful outcome depends on an individual making a correct choice at each of several more or less independent stages. The choice of mode of transport at various stages of a journey is one example. Comparable predicaments occur in professional, administrative, political and military life, and in communication networks generally. The temporal order of the several choices is not invariably a vital factor. Furthermore, the situation as a whole may have a stochastic character in that the probability of correct choice may vary from stage to stage.