Assessing the impact of aviation security on cyber power

We analyse the impact of new wireless technology threat models on cyber power, using the aviation context as an example. The ongoing move from traditional air traffic control systems such as radar and voice towards enhanced surveillance and communications systems using modern data networks causes a marked shift in the security of the aviation environment. Implemented through the European SESAR and the US American NextGen programmes, several new air traffic control and communication protocols are currently being rolled out that have been in the works for decades. Unfortunately, during their development the shifting wireless technology threat models were not taken into account. As technology related to digital avionics is getting more widely accessible, traditional electronic warfare threat models are fast becoming obsolete. This paper defines a novel and realistic threat model based on the up-to-date capabilities of different types of threat agents and their impact on a digitalised aviation communication system. After analysing how the changing technological environment affects the security of aviation technologies, current and future, we discuss the reasons preventing the aviation industry from quickly improving the security of its wireless protocols. Among these reasons, we identify the existing tradition of the industry, the prevalence of legacy hard- and software, major cost pressures, slow development cycles, and a narrow focus on safety (as opposed to security). Finally, we analyse how this major technological shift informs the future of cyber power and conflict in the aviation environment by looking at tangible effects for state actors.