A spatial cross‐correlation model of spectral accelerations at multiple periods

SUMMARY Many seismic loss problems (such as disruption of distributed infrastructure and losses to portfolios of structures) are dependent upon the regional distribution of ground-motion intensity, rather than intensity at only a single site. Quantifying ground-motion over a spatially-distributed region therefore requires information on the correlation between the ground-motion intensities at different sites during a single event. The focus of the present study is to assess the spatial correlation between ground-motion spectral accelerations at different periods. Ground motions from eight well-recorded earthquakes were used to study the spatial correlations. On the basis of obtained empirical correlation estimates, we propose a geostatistics-based method to formulate a predictive model that is suitable for simulation of spectral accelerations at multiple sites and multiple periods, in the case of crustal earthquakes in active seismic regions. While the calibration of this model and investigation of its implications were somewhat complex, the model itself is very simple to use for making correlation predictions. A user only needs to evaluate a simple equation relying on three sets of coefficients provided here to compute a correlation coefficient for spectral values at two periods and at a specified separation distance. These results may then be used in evaluating the seismic risk of portfolios of structures with differing fundamental periods. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

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