Sensitivity analysis of environmentally extended input–output models as a tool for building scenarios of sustainable development

There is an urgent need to develop scenarios and roadmaps for a more sustainable future than where business-as-usual is heading. This paper addresses the use of sensitivity analysis for analyzing environmentally extended input–output (EEIO) models in order to develop cost-effective and comprehensive scenario building. Main components of resource use, emission intensity and final demand are extracted from the complete network of interactions contained in the input–output tables of the national accounts. The method is demonstrated using a detailed Finnish EEIO-model (ENVIMAT). Based on the results, only 0.3% of the 23 103 interactions were found to have a significant effect on Finnish greenhouse gas emissions. The same parameters were also relevant for waste generation and land use, but not for gross domestic product. The identified main components were tested by structural decomposition. Actual development of greenhouse gas emissions from 2002 to 2005 was compared to that predicted by updating only the identified components. Based on the results, the development of greenhouse gas emissions could be predicted with high accuracy using only the identified main components. Generalizing the results, sensitivity analysis can assist in identifying the main components to be included in future scenarios for sustainable development.

[1]  Tuomas Mattila,et al.  Comparing priority setting in integrated hazardous substance assessment and in life cycle impact assessment , 2011 .

[2]  Saltelli Andrea,et al.  Global Sensitivity Analysis: The Primer , 2008 .

[3]  G. Turner.  A comparison of The Limits to Growth with 30 years of reality , 2008 .

[4]  Miguel Ángel Tarancón Morán,et al.  A combined input-output and sensitivity analysis approach to analyse sector linkages and CO2 emissions , 2007 .

[5]  Michael Jackson,et al.  Systems Thinking: Creative Holism for Managers , 2003 .

[6]  Manfred Lenzen,et al.  International trade drives biodiversity threats in developing nations , 2012, Nature.

[7]  Manfred Lenzen,et al.  Environmentally important paths, linkages and key sectors in the Australian economy , 2003 .

[8]  Chris Hendrickson,et al.  Environmental Life Cycle Assessment of Goods and Services: An Input-Output Approach , 2006 .

[9]  Z. Meral Ozsoyoglu,et al.  Statistical Databases , 1984, VLDB.

[10]  Manfred Lenzen,et al.  Structural path decomposition , 2009 .

[11]  D. Meadows,et al.  The Limits to Growth , 2018, Green Planet Blues.

[12]  Manfred Lenzen,et al.  A CARBON FOOTPRINT TIME SERIES OF THE UK – RESULTS FROM A MULTI-REGION INPUT–OUTPUT MODEL , 2010 .

[13]  S. Suh.  Handbook of input-output economics in industrial ecology , 2009 .

[14]  R. L. Keeney,et al.  Decisions with Multiple Objectives: Preferences and Value Trade-Offs , 1977, IEEE Transactions on Systems, Man, and Cybernetics.

[15]  R. Ackoff,et al.  Redesigning the Future, a Systems Approach to Societal Problems , 1977, IEEE Transactions on Systems, Man, and Cybernetics.

[16]  Thijs ten Raa,et al.  The Economics of Input-Output Analysis: Index , 2006 .

[17]  R. Heijungs.  Sensitivity coefficients for matrix-based LCA , 2010 .

[18]  Stephan Moll,et al.  Towards a global multi-regional environmentally extended input-output database , 2009 .

[19]  E. Hertwich,et al.  CO2 embodied in international trade with implications for global climate policy. , 2008, Environmental science & technology.

[20]  Peter J. Dortmans.  Forecasting, backcasting, migration landscapes and strategic planning maps , 2005 .

[21]  Russell L. Ackoff,et al.  Re-Creating the Corporation: A Design of Organizations for the 21st Century , 1999 .

[22]  A. Nissinen,et al.  Land use impacts of industries and products in the Finnish economy: A comparison of three indicators , 2011 .

[23]  W. Leontief.  Quantitative Input and Output Relations in the Economic Systems of the United States , 1936 .

[24]  Shuangzhe Liu,et al.  Global Sensitivity Analysis: The Primer by Andrea Saltelli, Marco Ratto, Terry Andres, Francesca Campolongo, Jessica Cariboni, Debora Gatelli, Michaela Saisana, Stefano Tarantola , 2008 .

[25]  Alexei G. Sankovski,et al.  Special report on emissions scenarios : a special report of Working group III of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change , 2000 .

[26]  Reinout Heijungs,et al.  The computational structure of life cycle assessment , 2002 .

[27]  C. Weber,et al.  Growth in emission transfers via international trade from 1990 to 2008 , 2011, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.

[28]  T. Mattila.  Any sustainable decoupling in the Finnish economy? A comparison of the pathways and sensitivities of GDP and ecological footprint 2002–2005 , 2012 .

[29]  Kerstin Cuhls,et al.  Technology foresight - Past and future , 2003 .

[30]  Joseph F. Francois,et al.  The World Input-Output Database (WIOD): Contents, Sources and Methods , 2012 .

[31]  Mattias Höjer,et al.  Sustainable energy prices and growth: Comparing macroeconomic and backcasting scenarios , 2007 .

[32]  Rachel Warren,et al.  The role of interactions in a world implementing adaptation and mitigation solutions to climate change , 2011, Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences.

[33]  John Robinson.  Energy backcasting A proposed method of policy analysis , 1982 .

[34]  S Pacala,et al.  Stabilization Wedges: Solving the Climate Problem for the Next 50 Years with Current Technologies , 2004, Science.

[35]  M. Lenzen,et al.  Shared producer and consumer responsibility — Theory and practice , 2007 .

[36]  W. Leontief.  Environmental Repercussions and the Economic Structure: An Input-Output Approach , 1970 .

[37]  Markus Törmä,et al.  Production of CORINE2000 land cover data using calibrated LANDSAT 7 ETM satellite image mosaics and digital maps in Finland , 2004, IGARSS 2004. 2004 IEEE International Geoscience and Remote Sensing Symposium.

[38]  Corinne Le Quéré,et al.  Rapid growth in CO2 emissions after the 2008-2009 global financial crisis , 2011 .

[39]  Tuomas Mattila,et al.  EE-IO modeling of the environmental impacts of Finnish imports using different data sources , 2011 .

[40]  C. Weber,et al.  China's growing CO2 emissions--a race between increasing consumption and efficiency gains. , 2007, Environmental science & technology.

[41]  F. Chapin,et al.  A safe operating space for humanity , 2009, Nature.

[42]  Helmut Haberl,et al.  Global bioenergy potentials from agricultural land in 2050: Sensitivity to climate change, diets and yields , 2011, Biomass & bioenergy.

[43]  Hartmut Keller,et al.  FREIGHTVISION - Sustainable European Freight Transport 2050 , 2011 .

[44]  S. J. Beddington,et al.  The Future of Food and Farming , 2001 .

[45]  J. Kiviluoma,et al.  The complexity and challenges of determining GHG (greenhouse gas) emissions from grid electricity consumption and conservation in LCA (life cycle assessment) – A methodological review , 2011 .

[46]  Bart Los,et al.  Structural decomposition techniques : sense and sensitivity , 1998 .

[47]  Richard Wood,et al.  The sustainability practitioner's guide to input-output analysis , 2010 .

[48]  Paul Ekins,et al.  The Tyndall decarbonisation scenarios—Part I: Development of a backcasting methodology with stakeholder participation , 2008 .

[49]  Peter D. Blair,et al.  Input-Output Analysis , 2021 .

[50]  Corinne Le Quéré,et al.  Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis , 2013 .

[51]  Harry C. Wilting,et al.  SENSITIVITY AND UNCERTAINTY ANALYSIS IN MRIO MODELLING; SOME EMPIRICAL RESULTS WITH REGARD TO THE DUTCH CARBON FOOTPRINT , 2012 .

[52]  T. Hertel.  Global Trade Analysis: Modeling and Applications , 1999 .

[53]  A. Nissinen,et al.  An assessment of greenhouse gas emissions and material flows caused by the Finnish economy using the ENVIMAT model , 2011 .

[54]  Faye Duchin,et al.  The Future of the Environment: Ecological Economics and Technological Change , 1995 .