Developments in Operational Long-Range Climate Prediction at CPC

Abstract The science, production methods, and format of long-range forecasts (LRFs) at the Climate Prediction Center (CPC), a part of the National Weather Service’s (NWS’s) National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP), have evolved greatly since the inception of 1-month mean forecasts in 1946 and 3-month mean forecasts in 1982. Early forecasts used a subjective blending of persistence and linear regression-based forecast tools, and a categorical map format. The current forecast system uses an increasingly objective technique to combine a variety of statistical and dynamical models, which incorporate the impacts of El Nino–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and other sources of interannual variability, and trend. CPC’s operational LRFs are produced each midmonth with a “lead” (i.e., amount of time between the release of a forecast and the start of the valid period) of ½ month for the 1-month outlook, and with leads ranging from ½ month through 12½ months for the 3-month outlook. The 1-month outlook is als...

[1]  E. Lorenz.  Atmospheric predictability experiments with a large numerical model , 1982 .

[2]  T. Başar,et al.  A New Approach to Linear Filtering and Prediction Problems , 2001 .

[3]  Robert E. Livezey,et al.  NCEP Forecasts of the El Niño of 1997–98 and Its U.S. Impacts , 1999 .

[4]  M. Blackmon,et al.  A Climatological Spectral Study of the 500 mb Geopotential Height of the Northern Hemisphere. , 1976 .

[5]  A. Barnston.  Linear Statistical Short-Term Climate Predictive Skill in the Northern Hemisphere , 1994 .

[6]  R. Murtugudde,et al.  Effect of preconditioning on the extreme climate events in the Tropical Indian Ocean , 2005 .

[7]  Arun Kumar,et al.  A Multiseason Climate Forecast System at the National Meteorological Center. , 1994 .

[8]  H. V. D. Dool,et al.  Empirical Methods in Short-Term Climate Prediction , 2006 .

[9]  J. Wallace,et al.  Horizontal structure of 500 mb height fluctuations with long, intermediate and short time scales , 1984 .

[10]  J. Wallace,et al.  Teleconnections in the Geopotential Height Field during the Northern Hemisphere Winter , 1981 .

[11]  John M. Wallace,et al.  Time Variation of 500 mb Height Fluctuations with Long, Intermediate and Short Time Scales as Deduced from Lag-Correlation Statistics , 1984 .

[12]  Thomas M. Smith,et al.  A Global Merged Land–Air–Sea Surface Temperature Reconstruction Based on Historical Observations (1880–1997) , 2005 .

[13]  Robert E. Livezey,et al.  Tropical-Extratropical Geopotential Height Teleconnections during the Northern Hemisphere Winter , 1986 .

[14]  V. Kousky,et al.  Relationships between Climate Variability and Winter Temperature Extremes in the United States , 2002 .

[15]  A. Barnston,et al.  Dominant Factors Influencing the Seasonal Predictability of U.S. Precipitation and Surface Air Temperature , 2000 .

[16]  W. Briggs.  Statistical Methods in the Atmospheric Sciences , 2007 .

[17]  Hurd C. Willett,et al.  Thirty-day forecasting : a review of a ten-year experiment , 1953 .

[18]  Huug van den Dool,et al.  Analysis of model-calculated soil moisture over the United States (1931-1993) and applications to long-range temperature forecasts , 1996 .

[19]  Robert E. Livezey,et al.  An operational multifield analog/antianalog prediction system for United States seasonal temperatures: 1. System design and winter experiments , 1988 .

[20]  D. L. Gilman.  Long-Range Forecasting: The Present and the Future , 1985 .

[21]  Robert E. Livezey,et al.  Verification of official monthly mean 700-hPa height forecasts: an update , 1995 .

[22]  S. Saha,et al.  The NCEP Climate Forecast System , 2006 .

[23]  T. Smith,et al.  Covariability of Aspects of North American Climate with Global Sea Surface Temperatures on Interannual to Interdecadal Timescales , 1999 .

[24]  E. Rasmusson,et al.  Variations in Tropical Sea Surface Temperature and Surface Wind Fields Associated with the Southern Oscillation/El Niño , 1982 .

[25]  R. E. Livezey.  Variability of Skill of Long-Range Forecasts and Implications for their Use and Value , 1990 .

[26]  Michael B. Richman,et al.  Climatic Pattern Analysis of Three- and Seven-Day Summer Rainfall in the Central United States: Some Methodological Considerations and a Regionalization , 1985 .

[27]  A. Barnston,et al.  Long-Lead Seasonal Temperature Prediction Using Optimal Climate Normals , 1996 .

[28]  J. Wallace,et al.  Barotropic Wave Propagation and Instability, and Atmospheric Teleconnection Patterns. , 1983 .

[29]  Huug van den Dool,et al.  Performance and analysis of the constructed analogue method applied to U.S. soil moisture over 1981-2001 , 2003 .

[30]  T. Barnett,et al.  Long-Lead Seasonal ForecastsWhere Do We Stand? , 1994 .

[31]  J. Wallace,et al.  An Observational Study of the Northern Hemisphere Wintertime Circulation , 1977 .

[32]  A. Barnston,et al.  Classification, seasonality and persistence of low-frequency atmospheric circulation patterns , 1987 .

[33]  A. Leetmaa,et al.  Extreme Precipitation Events in the Western United States Related to Tropical Forcing , 2000 .

[34]  John M. Wallace,et al.  Planetary-Scale Atmospheric Phenomena Associated with the Southern Oscillation , 1981 .

[35]  R. W. Higgins,et al.  An Alert Classification System for Monitoring and Assessing the ENSO Cycle , 2007 .

[36]  Robert G. Quayle,et al.  A Historical Perspective of U.S. Climate Divisions , 1996 .