Considerations in the use of models available for fuel treatment analysis

Fire managers are required to evaluate and justify the effectiveness of planned fuel treatments in modifying fire growth, behavior and effects on resources and assets. With the number of models currently available, today’s fire manager can become overwhelmed when deciding which model to use. Each model has a required level of expertise in order to develop the necessary data, run the model(s), and analyze and interpret their associated outputs. In addition, each model has an appropriate temporal and spatial scale for its use, e.g., stand level versus landscape level. Traditional fuel treatment analyses have focused on stand level changes in fire behavior and effects. This approach does not to account for the topological effects of treatments in modifying fire growth, fire behavior and fire effects. To fully investigate fuel treatment effectiveness requires the examination of the spatial interaction of fuel treatments. This requires the use of spatial models to analyze and display these effects.

[1]  John A. Helms,et al.  Principles of Silviculture , 1979 .

[2]  Nicholas L. Crookston,et al.  An overview of the fire and fuels extension to the forest vegetation simulator , 2000 .

[3]  Debra S. Larson,et al.  Projected economic impacts of a 16-Inch tree cutting cap for ponderosa pine forests within the greater Flagstaff urban-wildlands , 2001 .

[4]  Carl N. Skinner,et al.  Basic principles of forest fuel reduction treatments , 2005 .

[5]  Nicholas L. Crookston,et al.  Users guide to the Most Similar Neighbor Imputation Program Version 2 , 2002 .

[6]  David R. Anderson,et al.  Model selection and inference : a practical information-theoretic approach , 2000 .

[7]  Charles W. McHugh,et al.  Simulation of long-term landscape-level fuel treatment effects on large wildfires , 2006 .

[8]  Scott L. Stephens,et al.  Experimental fuel treatment impacts on forest structure, potential fire behavior, and predicted tree mortality in a California mixed conifer forest , 2005 .

[9]  Mark A. Finney,et al.  A computational method for optimising fuel treatment locations , 2006 .

[10]  M Dodge,et al.  Forest fuel accumulation--a growing problem. , 1972, Science.

[11]  W. Covington,et al.  Ponderosa pine ecosystems restoration and conservation: steps toward stewardship; 2000 April 25-27; Flagstaff, AZ , 2001 .

[12]  M. Finney.  Fire growth using minimum travel time methods , 2002 .

[13]  Christopher R. Keyes,et al.  Quantifying Stand Targets for Silvicultural Prevention of Crown Fires , 2002 .

[14]  D. Calkin,et al.  Forest service large fire area burned and suppression expenditure trends, 1970-2002 , 2005 .

[15]  Dennis L. Lynch,et al.  Financial results of ponderosa pine forest restoration in southwestern Colorado , 2001 .

[16]  Harold R. Weaver.  Fire As An Ecological and Silvicultural Factor in the Ponderosa-Pine Region of the Pacific Slope , 1943 .

[17]  H. Anderson.  Aids to Determining Fuel Models for Estimating Fire Behavior , 1982 .

[18]  Southeastern Forest Experiment Station.  General technical report , 1985 .

[19]  Janet L. Ohmann,et al.  Predictive mapping of forest composition and structure with direct gradient analysis and nearest- neighbor imputation in coastal Oregon, U.S.A. , 2002 .

[20]  C. E. Van Wagner,et al.  Conditions for the start and spread of crown fire , 1977 .

[21]  Patricia L. Andrews,et al.  Fire modeling and information system technology , 2001 .

[22]  Sj Simard.  Fire Severity, Changing Scales, and How Things Hang Together , 1991 .

[23]  Philip N. Omi,et al.  Reduction of Fire Hazard Through Thinning/Residue Disposal in the Urban Interface , 1998 .

[24]  Mark A. Finney,et al.  Calculation of fire spread rates across random landscapes , 2003 .

[25]  D. Cram,et al.  Wildland Fire Effects in Silviculturally Treated vs. Untreated Stands of New Mexico and Arizona , 2006 .

[26]  Todd A. Morgan,et al.  A Strategic Assessment of Crown Fire Hazard in Montana: Potential Effectiveness and Costs of Hazard Reduction Treatments , 2004 .

[27]  Angela Lee,et al.  Perspectives on … Environmental Systems Research Institute, Inc , 1997 .

[28]  Nicholas L. Crookston,et al.  User's guide to the stand prognosis model / , 1982 .

[29]  Joe H. Scott.  Canopy Fuel Treatment Standards for the Wildland-Urban Interface , 2003 .

[30]  G. Box.  Science and Statistics , 1976 .

[31]  S. Hummel,et al.  Western spruce budworm defoliation effects on forest structure and potential fire behavior , 2003 .

[32]  Scott L. Stephens,et al.  Evaluation of the effects of silvicultural and fuels treatments on potential fire behaviour in Sierra Nevada mixed-conifer forests , 1998 .

[33]  Russell T. Graham,et al.  The effects of thinning and similar stand treatments on fire behavior in Western forests. , 1999 .

[34]  Peter Z. Fulé,et al.  Comparing ecological restoration alternatives: Grand Canyon, Arizona , 2002 .

[35]  P. Hessburg,et al.  An environmental narrative of Inland Northwest United States forests, 1800–2000 , 2003 .

[36]  M. Finney.  FARSITE : Fire Area Simulator : model development and evaluation , 1998 .