Resilience Theory and System Evaluation

King Ozymandias clearly failed to appreciate that, in a changing world, it is very difficult to achieve even a semblance of permanence. Despite the virtual impossibility of accurately predicting the future, every decision — for example, whether to manufacture a new technology, open or close a school, hospital, or mine — implies a vision of futurity. Either implicitly or explicitly, those involved are making assumptions about such variables as social values, population growth, energy demand, prices, environmental stability, competing innovations, and political trends. None of these factors are fixed. If the past is modeled by a single straight line, then the present can be considered a dot at one end. Beyond this lies the future, not one but a multiplicity of possible alternative lines.