The Box Jenkins Approach to Forecast Net Electricity Consumption in Turkey

Electricity is the most important input in many activities in today's world. The requirement of electricity has been sharply increased in developing countries due to the advances in technology and economic development. Turkey is one of the developing countries and its electricity consumption has been rapidly growing. Therefore, the estimation of electricity consumption plays a vital role in energy policy planning for Turkey. This article presents the Box Jenkins approach to forecast electricity consumption in Turkey. In order to remove the exponential impact, the natural logarithm transformation is applied to net electricity consumption data. Later, four steps of the Box Jenkins modeling strategy are applied. The ARIMA (1,1,0) model is identified and examined by calculating three different evaluation statistics. Furthermore, future projections are carried out for net electricity consumption in Turkey for the next 5 years.

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