A Panel-Based Investigation into the Relationship Between Stock Prices and Dividends

This paper investigates the presence of cointegration between stock prices and dividends for a panel of 56 large UK companies. Using new techniques which account for integrated processes in a panel context we demonstrate that stock prices and dividends are cointegrated, with an implied common discount rate of 5.8%.

[1]  T. Andersen THE ECONOMETRICS OF FINANCIAL MARKETS , 1998, Econometric Theory.

[2]  R. Pettit,et al.  DIVIDEND ANNOUNCEMENTS, SECURITY PERFORMANCE, AND CAPITAL MARKET EFFICIENCY , 1972 .

[3]  W. Andrew,et al.  LO, and A. , 1988 .

[4]  Soosung Hwang THE EFFECTS OF SYSTEMATIC SAMPLING AND TEMPORAL AGGREGATION ON DISCRETE TIME LONG MEMORY PROCESSES AND THEIR FINITE SAMPLE PROPERTIES , 2000, Econometric Theory.

[5]  Robert J. Shiller,et al.  Cointegration and Tests of Present Value Models , 1987, Journal of Political Economy.

[6]  John Arnold,et al.  A Survey of the Methods Used by UK Investment Analysts to Appraise Investments in Ordinary Shares , 1984 .

[7]  J. Lintner DISTRIBUTION OF INCOMES OF CORPORATIONS AMONG DIVIDENDS, RETAINED EARNINGS AND TAXES , 1956 .

[8]  R. MacDonald,et al.  Stock prices, dividends and retention: Long-run relationships and short-run dynamics☆ , 1995 .

[9]  Soosung Hwang,et al.  Improved testing for the efficiency of asset pricing theories in linear factor models , 1999 .

[10]  Roy Batchelor,et al.  Rationality testing under asymmetric loss , 1998 .

[11]  I. Marsh,et al.  An Analysis of the Performance of European Foreign Exchange Forecasters , 1999 .

[12]  R. MacDonald STOCK PRICES AND EXCESSIVE VOLATILITY: SOME EVIDENCE FOR THE FT ORDINARY SHARE INDEX , 1994 .

[13]  Paul Marriott,et al.  An elementary account of Amari's expected geometry , 2000 .

[14]  P. Pedroni PANEL COINTEGRATION: ASYMPTOTIC AND FINITE SAMPLE PROPERTIES OF POOLED TIME SERIES TESTS WITH AN APPLICATION TO THE PPP HYPOTHESIS , 2004, Econometric Theory.

[15]  Mark P. Taylor,et al.  The monetary approach to the exchange rate : rational expectations, long-run equilibrium, and forecasting , 1993 .

[16]  Giampiero M. Gallo,et al.  On the Evolution of Credibility and Flexible Exchange Rate Target Zones , 1999 .

[17]  Lonie Gunasekarage,et al.  Power, and C. , 1996 .

[18]  M. Hooker Testing for cointegration : Power versus frequency of observation , 1993 .

[19]  Anthony D. Hall,et al.  Using Bayesian Variable Selection Methods to Choose Style Factors in Global Stock Return Models , 2000 .

[20]  J. Robert,et al.  SHILLER, . Do Stock Prices Move Too Much to be Justified by Subsequent Changes in Dividends?, The American Economic Review, , . , 1981 .

[21]  P. Pedroni Fully Modified OLS for Heterogeneous Cointegrated Panels and the Case of Purchasing Power Parity , 1996 .

[22]  K. A. Rainbow The information content of dividends , 1974 .

[23]  R. MacDonald,et al.  The term structure of interest rates under rational expectations: some international evidence , 1991 .

[24]  C. D. Sinclair,et al.  The stock market reaction to dividend announcements: A UK study of complex market signals , 1996 .

[25]  K. West,et al.  Dividend Innovations and Stock Price Volatility , 1986 .

[26]  J. Aharony,et al.  Quarterly Dividend and Earnings Announcements and Stockholders' Returns: An Empirical Analysis , 1980 .

[27]  Richard Pike,et al.  The Appraisal of Ordinary Shares by Investment Analysts in the UK and Germany , 1993 .

[28]  A. Rose,et al.  A Panel Project on Purchasing Power Parity: Mean Reversion within and between Countries , 1995 .

[29]  K. Abadir Testing for Cointegration , 1995 .

[30]  Stephen E. Satchell,et al.  Modelling emerging market risk premia using higher moments , 1999 .

[31]  Paul Marriott,et al.  An introduction to differential geometry in econometrics , 2000 .

[32]  R. Shiller,et al.  Stock Prices, Earnings and Expected Dividends , 1988 .

[33]  R. Shiller,et al.  The Dividend Ratio Model and Small Sample Bias: a Monte Carlo Study , 1988 .

[34]  James G. MacKinnon,et al.  Critical Values for Cointegration Tests , 1990 .

[35]  Mark Salmon,et al.  From Market Micro-structure to Macro Fundamentals: is there Predictability in the Dollar-Deutsche Mark Exchange Rate? , 1999 .

[36]  Stephen E. Satchell,et al.  Forecasting Volatility using LINEX Loss Functions , 1999 .

[37]  Chinmoy Ghosh,et al.  Dividend cuts: Do they always signal bad news , 1985 .

[38]  Harry DeAngelo,et al.  Dividends and Losses , 1992 .

[39]  S. Satchell,et al.  Market Risk and the Concept of Fundamental Volatility , 1997 .