MEASUREMENT OF SUBJECTIVE PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTIONS

Abstract : Five experimental one-person games are derived which promise both valid and efficient measure ment of discrete and continuous subjective proba bility distributions. All of these games possess the characteristic that it is to the disadvantage of the decision maker to respond in a manner in consistent with his actual expectations. The measurement procedures are efficient and rapid. It appears that some of the procedures could be used to measure continuously changing subjective probabilities. (Author)