Determinants of global natural gas consumption and import–export flows

Based on the data of the BP Statistical Review of World Energy, this paper constructs the consumption and import–export of natural gas identities. It discusses the drivers of changes in global natural gas consumption and trade flows from 2008 to 2015 using the extended logarithmic mean Divisia index. The results show that differences in the natural gas supply and demand across countries or regions, as well as the distribution of energy between the domestic and international markets, can be better explained when natural gas trade movements are considered. By comparing the supply and consumption increment of natural gas, this study finds that only the energy intensity, economic growth, and demographic effects are consistent with each other. The changes in the impact of other effects mainly depend on storage variations and statistical errors. In addition, the primary drivers of the incremental changes in natural gas consumption vary in different countries. They include production scale, import scale, export scale, consumption structure proportion, energy intensity, economic growth, and population and balance effects. Finally, the consumption competitiveness of the liquefied natural gas significantly improved over the examined period.

[1]  Ying Fan,et al.  A Dynamic Analysis on Global Natural Gas Trade Network , 2014 .

[2]  Qiang Ji,et al.  Exploring the driving factors of global LNG trade flows using gravity modelling , 2018 .

[3]  Carlo Alcaraz,et al.  The Effect of Natural Gas Shortages on the Mexican Economy , 2016 .

[4]  B. W. Ang,et al.  Handling zero values in the logarithmic mean Divisia index decomposition approach , 2007 .

[5]  Eva Llera-Sastresa,et al.  Liquefied natural gas: Could it be a reliable option for road freight transport in the EU? , 2017 .

[6]  Philipp M. Richter,et al.  A Global Perspective on the Future of Natural Gas: Resources, Trade, and Climate Constraints , 2015, Review of Environmental Economics and Policy.

[7]  B. W. Ang,et al.  Decomposition analysis for policymaking in energy:: which is the preferred method? , 2004 .

[8]  Perry Sadorsky,et al.  Trade and energy consumption in the Middle East , 2011 .

[9]  Sergey Paltsev,et al.  The future of U.S. natural gas production, use, and trade , 2011 .

[10]  Suyi Kim.  LMDI Decomposition Analysis of Energy Consumption in the Korean Manufacturing Sector , 2017 .

[11]  Boqiang Lin,et al.  What factors lead to the decline of energy intensity in China's energy intensive industries? , 2018 .

[12]  Panagiotis Fragkos,et al.  Drivers of regional decarbonization through 2100: A multi-model decomposition analysis , 2015 .

[13]  Ilhan Ozturk,et al.  The relationship between natural gas consumption and economic growth in OPEC members , 2016 .

[14]  Franziska Holz,et al.  Risks in global natural gas markets: Investment, hedging and trade , 2016 .

[15]  Antonio Sánchez-Braza,et al.  Driving forces of Spain׳s CO2 emissions: A LMDI decomposition approach , 2015 .

[16]  S. Forin,et al.  The effect of industry delocalization on global energy use: A global sectoral perspective , 2018 .

[17]  M. Arouri,et al.  The Role of Natural Gas Consumption and Trade in Tunisia’s Output , 2014 .

[18]  E. Hertwich,et al.  CO2 embodied in international trade with implications for global climate policy. , 2008, Environmental science & technology.

[19]  Hooi Hooi Lean,et al.  Natural Gas Consumption and Economic Growth in Pakistan , 2013 .

[20]  Ek Peng Chew,et al.  Perfect decomposition techniques in energy and environmental analysis , 2003 .

[21]  Pei Liu,et al.  LMDI decomposition of energy consumption in Guangdong Province, China, based on an energy allocation diagram , 2017 .

[22]  Ryan Bosworth,et al.  LNG is linking regional natural gas markets: Evidence from the gravity model , 2015 .

[23]  Fumitaka Furuoka,et al.  Natural gas consumption and economic development in China and Japan: An empirical examination of the Asian context , 2016 .

[24]  Yiyong Cai,et al.  U.S. Natural Gas Exports and Their Global Impacts , 2014 .

[25]  Boqiang Lin,et al.  Analysis of the changes in the scale of natural gas subsidy in China and its decomposition factors , 2018 .

[26]  I. Ozturk,et al.  Natural gas consumption and economic growth nexus: Is the 10th Malaysian plan attainable within the limits of its resource? , 2015 .

[27]  M. Destek.  Natural gas consumption and economic growth: Panel evidence from OECD countries , 2016 .

[28]  J. Oosterhaven,et al.  Economic impacts of natural gas flow disruptions between Russia and the EU , 2017 .

[29]  M. Yuan,et al.  Economics of U.S. natural gas exports: Should regulators limit U.S. LNG exports? , 2016 .

[30]  Eunnyeong Heo,et al.  Estimating the price premium of LNG in Korea and Japan: The price formula approach , 2017 .

[31]  M. Arouri,et al.  Short- and long-run relationships between natural gas consumption and economic growth: Evidence from Pakistan , 2014 .

[32]  Wadim Strielkowski,et al.  Energy efficiency and natural gas consumption in the context of economic development in the European Union , 2016 .

[33]  Sakiru Adebola Solarin,et al.  Natural Gas Consumption and Economic Growth: The Role of Foreign Direct Investment, Capital Formation and Trade Openness in Malaysia , 2015 .

[34]  Roberto Aguilera,et al.  The Asia Pacific natural gas market: Large enough for all? , 2014 .

[35]  Hassan Heidari,et al.  Natural gas consumption and economic growth: Are we ready to natural gas price liberalization in Iran? , 2013 .