A comprehensive and easy-to-use ECG algorithm to predict the coronary occlusion site in ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction.

BACKGROUND Several electrocardiogram (ECG) criteria have been proposed to predict the location of the culprit occlusion in specific subsets of patients presenting with ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI). OBJECTIVES The aim of this study was to develop, through an independent validation of currently available criteria, a comprehensive and easy-to-use ECG algorithm, and to test its diagnostic performance in real-world clinical practice. METHODS We analyzed ECG and angiographic data from 419 consecutive STEMI patients submitted to primary percutaneous coronary intervention over a one-year period, dividing the overall population into derivation (314 patients) and validation (105 patients) cohorts. In the derivation cohort, we tested >60 previously published ECG criteria, using the decision-tree analysis to develop the algorithm that would best predict the infarct-related artery (IRA) and its occlusion level. We further assessed the new algorithm diagnostic performance in the validation cohort. RESULTS In the derivation cohort, the algorithm correctly predicted the IRA in 88% of cases and both the IRA and its occlusion level (proximal vs. mid-distal) in 71% of cases. When applied to the validation cohort, the algorithm resulted in 88% and 67% diagnostic accuracies, respectively. In a real-world comparative test, the algorithm performed significantly better than expert physicians in identifying the site of the culprit occlusion (p=0.026 vs. best cardiologist and p<0.001 vs. best emergency medicine doctor). CONCLUSIONS Derived from an extensive literature review, this comprehensive and easy-to-use ECG algorithm can accurately predict the IRA and its occlusion level in all-comers STEMI patients. CONDENSED ABSTRACT Several electrocardiogram (ECG) criteria can predict the location of the culprit occlusion in specific subsets of patients presenting with ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI). We analyzed data from 419 STEMI patients to independently validate the currently available ECG criteria and combine them in a comprehensive and easy-to-use algorithm. The internal validation indicated that our algorithm is accurate and reliable, making it suitable for clinical practice. This ECG algorithm can predict the culprit occlusion site in all-comers STEMI and may be helpful to determine prognosis and guide the management of these patients.