The use of Bayesian network in analysis of urban intersection crashes in China

AbstractTraffic fatalities and injuries on urban roads especially at urban intersections constitute a growing problem in China. This study aims at researching urban intersection crashes in China and drawing conclusions by using hierarchical structured data with reference to Bayesian network (BN). On the basis of 3584 recorded crashes collected from the urban intersections of Changshu, China, a BN topological structure is developed to reflect the hierarchical characteristic of crash variables. The parameter learning process is completed with Dirichlet prior distribution. Junction tree engine is used to make inference on crash types at urban intersections with two respective given evidences, i.e. human factor and vehicle type. Parameter learning results suggest the efficacy of BN approach in the prediction accuracy. The average learned probability of illegal driving is 40.83%, which is much higher than other learned probabilities of human factors. The inferred probabilities of frontal collision at urban int...