Bounding distributions for a stochastic pert network

Consider a PERT network with stochastic activity durations. This paper presents a new method for obtaining probability distributions that bound the exact probability distribution of the project duration from above and below. The expected values of these bounding distributions then furnish lower and upper bounds on the expected project duration. As illustrated by computational experience, these bounds are tighter than those obtained from methods currently in use. The paper concludes by describing similar results for stochastic shortest-route networks.

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