Optimal control strategy for prevention of avian influenza pandemic.

The spread of H5N1 virus to Europe and continued human infection in Southeast Asia have heightened pandemic concern. Although, fortunately, sustained human-to-human transmissions have not been reported yet, it is said that a pandemic virus which can be easily transmitted among humans certainly emerges in the future. In this study, we extended the previous studies for the prevention of the pandemic influenza to evaluate the time-dependent optimal prevention policies, which are associated with elimination policy and quarantine policy, considering its execution cost. Actually, the execution cost affects the optimal strategy of prevention policies and the prevention of the disease spread. We found that the quarantine policy is very important rather than the elimination policy during the disease spread, even if the unit execution cost of the quarantine policy is more expensive than that of the elimination policy. And also, the change of the unit execution cost does affect the total cumulative cost of the optimal prevention policies but does not affect the relative frequency of each cumulative execution cost. Furthermore, interestingly, we revealed that an optimal strategy to reduce the number of total infected humans might increase a chance of invadability of the mutant influenza.

[1]  Angus Nicoll,et al.  Avian influenza A (H5N1) infection in humans. , 2005, The New England journal of medicine.

[2]  Y. Guan,et al.  Establishment of multiple sublineages of H5N1 influenza virus in Asia: implications for pandemic control. , 2006, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America.

[3]  J. Robins,et al.  Transmissibility of 1918 pandemic influenza , 2004, Nature.

[4]  J. Rushton,et al.  Impact of avian influenza outbreaks in the poultry sectors of five South East Asian countries (Cambodia, Indonesia, Lao PDR, Thailand, Viet Nam) outbreak costs, responses and potential long term control , 2005 .

[5]  T. P. van den Berg,et al.  Avian Influenza Outbreak Management: Action at Time of Confirmation, Depopulation and Disposal Methods; the ‘Belgian Experience’ during the H7N7 Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza Epidemic in 2003 , 2008, Zoonoses and public health.

[6]  Kevin Barraclough,et al.  I and i , 2001, BMJ : British Medical Journal.

[7]  Rustom Antia,et al.  The role of evolution in the emergence of infectious diseases , 2003, Nature.

[8]  Sergei L. Kosakovsky Pond,et al.  Evolutionary and Transmission Dynamics of Reassortant H5N1 Influenza Virus in Indonesia , 2008, PLoS pathogens.

[9]  F. Roger,et al.  Avian influenza vaccines: a practical review in relation to their application in the field with a focus on the Asian experience , 2008, Epidemiology and Infection.

[10]  M. van Boven,et al.  Avian influenza A virus (H7N7) epidemic in The Netherlands in 2003: course of the epidemic and effectiveness of control measures. , 2004, The Journal of infectious diseases.

[11]  T. Carpenter,et al.  Epidemiology of H5N1 avian influenza. , 2009, Comparative immunology, microbiology and infectious diseases.

[12]  Suzanne Lenhart,et al.  Optimal control of treatments in a two-strain tuberculosis model , 2002 .

[13]  Dennis Normile,et al.  WHO Proposes Plan to Stop Pandemic in Its Tracks , 2006, Science.

[14]  W. Hogg,et al.  The costs of preventing the spread of respiratory infection in family physician offices: a threshold analysis , 2007, BMC Health Services Research.

[15]  N. Liem,et al.  Lack of H5N1 Avian Influenza Transmission to Hospital Employees, Hanoi, 2004 , 2005, Emerging infectious diseases.

[16]  N. Skeik,et al.  Influenza viruses and the evolution of avian influenza virus H5N1 , 2007, International Journal of Infectious Diseases.

[17]  Xianning Liu,et al.  Avian flu pandemic: Can we prevent it? , 2009, Journal of theoretical biology.

[18]  J. Rushton,et al.  Economic issues in vaccination against highly pathogenic avian influenza in developing countries. , 2007, Developments in biologicals.

[19]  M. Nielen,et al.  Transmission of the highly pathogenic avian influenza virus H5N1 within flocks during the 2004 epidemic in Thailand. , 2007, The Journal of infectious diseases.

[20]  M. Gilbert,et al.  Anatidae Migration in the Western Palearctic and Spread of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza H5N1 Virus , 2006, Emerging infectious diseases.

[21]  Gerardo Chowell,et al.  Quantifying the transmission potential of pandemic influenza , 2007, Physics of Life Reviews.

[22]  Xianning Liu,et al.  Prevention of avian influenza epidemic: what policy should we choose? , 2008, Journal of theoretical biology.

[23]  J. Farrar,et al.  WRITING COMMITTEE OF THE WORLD HEALTH ORGANIZATION (WHO) CONSULTATION ON HUMAN INFLUENZA A/H5. AVIAN INFLUENZA A (H5N1) INFECTION IN HUMANS , 2005 .

[24]  Xianning Liu,et al.  Avian-human influenza epidemic model. , 2007, Mathematical biosciences.

[25]  D. Cummings,et al.  Strategies for mitigating an influenza pandemic , 2006, Nature.

[26]  D. Cummings,et al.  Strategies for containing an emerging influenza pandemic in Southeast Asia , 2005, Nature.

[27]  Christopher T. McCaw,et al.  A Biological Model for Influenza Transmission: Pandemic Planning Implications of Asymptomatic Infection and Immunity , 2007, PloS one.

[28]  Sebastian Bonhoeffer,et al.  This PDF file includes: SOM Text , 2022 .

[29]  M. Pagano,et al.  Transmissibility of the Influenza Virus in the 1918 Pandemic , 2008, PloS one.

[30]  G. Thompson,et al.  Optimal Control Theory: Applications to Management Science and Economics , 2000 .

[31]  Gabriele Neumann,et al.  Human infection with highly pathogenic H5N1 influenza virus , 2008, The Lancet.

[32]  L. S. Pontryagin,et al.  Mathematical Theory of Optimal Processes , 1962 .

[33]  J. Taubenberger,et al.  Capturing a killer flu virus. , 2005, Scientific American.

[34]  S. Lenhart,et al.  OPTIMIZING CHEMOTHERAPY IN AN HIV MODEL , 1998 .

[35]  D. Kirschner,et al.  Optimal control of the chemotherapy of HIV , 1997, Journal of mathematical biology.

[36]  G. G. Stokes.  "J." , 1890, The New Yale Book of Quotations.

[37]  E. Jung,et al.  Optimal Control Theory Applied to a Difference Equation Model of Cardiopulmonary Resuscitation with Chest Compression Only , 2005 .

[38]  Y Li,et al.  The evolution of H5N1 influenza viruses in ducks in southern China. , 2004, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America.

[39]  A. Nizam,et al.  Economic evaluation of influenza pandemic mitigation strategies in the United States using a stochastic microsimulation transmission model. , 2009, Value in health : the journal of the International Society for Pharmacoeconomics and Outcomes Research.

[40]  John T. Workman,et al.  Optimal Control Applied to Biological Models , 2007 .

[41]  R. May,et al.  Infectious Diseases of Humans: Dynamics and Control , 1991, Annals of Internal Medicine.

[42]  David L. Smith,et al.  Key strategies for reducing spread of avian influenza among commercial poultry holdings: lessons for transmission to humans , 2006, Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences.

[43]  Y. Guan,et al.  H5N1 Outbreaks and Enzootic Influenza , 2006, Emerging infectious diseases.

[44]  J. Hyman,et al.  Transmission Dynamics of the Great Influenza Pandemic of 1918 in Geneva, Switzerland: Assessing the Effects of Hypothetical Interventions , 2022 .

[45]  Vladimir A. Protopopescu,et al.  Optimal control for a standard CPR model , 2005 .

[46]  Marius Gilbert,et al.  Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza H5N1, Thailand, 2004 , 2005, Emerging infectious diseases.

[47]  R. Jacobson,et al.  Avian and pandemic influenza: an overview. , 2007, Vaccine.

[48]  Suzanne Lenhart,et al.  Optimal strategy for cardiopulmonary resuscitation with continuous chest compression. , 2006, Academic emergency medicine : official journal of the Society for Academic Emergency Medicine.